DR Mehtab S. Karim is Vice Chancellor of the Malir University of Science and Technology in Karachi with a PhD in demography. Besides having served as a professor of demography in Pakistan and the United States, he has published books on population issues in Muslim-majority countries. On behalf of the United Nations Develop­ment Programme, in 1982 he served as a short-term adviser to the Pakistan census organisation and was a member of the steering committee constituted by the United Nations Population Fund and the government of Pakistan to evaluate the 1998 census results. During 2012-14, he was a member of the governing council of the Pakistan Bureau of Stati­stics. Below are excerpts from his interview with Hasan Mansoor.

Q: Why is Sindh’s share in the country’s population incessantly increasing and what demographic impact will it have on the dominant communities which feel threatened?

A: From 1951 to 1981 four censuses were held in Pakistan, when the population of Sindh increased from six million to 19m, about threefold, in 30 years. During the same period, the country’s population recorded a 2.5-fold increase. Sindh’ population during the period increased faster due to migration from other provinces. This resulted in a phenomenal increase in Sindh’s share in the country’s population from 17.9pc in 1951 to 19.5pc in 1961 and 22.6pc in 1981. Surprisingly, when the next census was conducted after 17 years in 1998, Sindh’s share in the national population increased only by 0.4 percentage points; whereas, it had increased by three percentage points during the 1961-81 period. Although the 1998 census data clearly showed that 10 years before the census 1.2 million people had migrated to Sindh (about 636,000 from Punjab and about 431,000 from the then NWFP), it was not reflected in the increased share of Sindh’s population. I had done some modelling as part of evaluating the 1998 census results, and my estimates were that Sindh’s population was grossly under-reported in 1998 to the tune of about six million people. If correct figures had been reported, Sindh’s population then was about 25pc of the national population. Constant migration to Sindh from other provinces has created ethnic imbalance, whereby according to the 1998 census 61pc of the population reported Sindhi as their mother tongue, 21pc Urdu, 7pc Punjabi, 4pc Pashto, 2pc Balochi and 5pc other languages.

Q: Will this census reduce the gap between Sindh and Punjab and make Sindh a major player politically in the future with an increased share in parliament?

A: Both the 1981 and 1998 censuses reported a similar difference in the share of Punjab and Sindh in the national population (56pc and 23pc, respectively). It is likely that their respective share now is 51pc and 27pc, which has narrowed the gap to 24 percentage points, which is still substantial. With over 50pc of the population still living in Punjab, it will remain a major political player in the country.

Q: Why are people overly conscious about their ethnicity and faiths, and had the sensitivity about mother tongue column always been a serious identity issue in a country comprising varied cultures and languages?

A: As societies become more modernised, the role of both ethnicity and faith becomes less prominent. Unfortunately, even after 70 years of independence, Pakistan is still confronted with the issue of ethnicity and faith. Once we start considering ourselves Pakistanis, half of our problems will disappear.

Q: Tell us about the reasons behind controversies like that of non-inclusion of Sikhism in the religion column and several minority languages spoken in the country, especially in Sindh?

A: It was sheer ignorance of the high-ups in the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) that respondents were not given a choice about Sikhism when all other religions were assigned a code. In fact, our committee had recommended so before the start of the census, but our recommendation was not accepted. Now it does not make sense as the question about Sikhism will be asked in the second round when census will already be completed in half of the country. Apparently the PBS only adheres to the judgement passed by the Supreme Court, which took a suo motu notice and compelled the PBS to conduct the census this year. Similarly, questions about transgender and handicapped persons were only added after the judgement passed by the Supreme Court. People should also have been given an option to choose other languages as well besides the nine listed in the form, such as Gujarati, Memoni, Bengali, Persian, Kohistani, Chitrali, Brushuski, Makrani, Thari and Marwari. This would have just meant adding another column in the census form.

Q: Will this census affect the urban-rural ratio in the country and how will that affect the overall socio-economic scenario of Pakistan with special reference to Sindh?

A: Unfortunately, unlike the previous censuses a long form is not being used, where details about migration from one district to another and rural to urban areas were obtained with other demographic information. We will have to wait for about a year to have this information available. However, from the first round of the census we will know what percentage of population is living in urban and rural areas of the country, its provinces and districts. It is a well-known fact that people in large numbers have been moving to cities, and perhaps by now about 45pc of Pakistan’s population is living in the urban areas (up from 35pc in 1998). In Sindh, in 1998 about 49pc population was reported to be living in the urban areas and probably that has now increased to 60pc. This rapid increase in urban population has resulted in mushroom growth of katchi abadis and breakdown of basic urban services there. The rapid increase in urban population will be perhaps the major finding of the 2017 census, which could result in a substantial increase in representation from the urban areas in the assemblies.

Q: Tell us about the provinces’ reservations with the Centre’s census policy.

A: Apparently provinces have reservations because they were not taken on board earlier and none of the functioning members of the PBS are from smaller provinces. Similarly until recently, Khyber Pakhtun­khwa and Balochistan were not represented in the governing council of the PBS. Probably that’s why smaller provinces have been apprehensive about the whole exercise.

Published in Dawn, March 24th, 2017