THE release of a hot-mic tape in which Donald Trump is featured saying lewd and sexually suggestive things about women looks to be a catastrophic moment for the presidential nominee, who is already struggling to stay on message in the final month of the campaign.

Dozens of Republican elected officials — including prominent senators such as John McCain and Rob Portman — have disavowed Trump since news of the tape was broken by The Washington Post on Friday afternoon. Strategists for Republicans trying to keep the party’s majorities in the House and the Senate are apoplectic about what Trump’s seeming collapse means for their chances and what, if anything, can be done to salvage things.

Lost amid all of that scrambling is what Trump’s demise will mean for those Republican candidates who are positioning themselves to run for president in 2020. Although that jockeying has been an almost entirely out-of-sight effort to date, the size and scope of Trump’s problems may force these 2020 aspirants to actively grapple with their position vis-a-vis the Republican nominee sooner rather than later.

Given what Trump has said and done in the course of this campaign — and coupled with the increasing likelihood that he will lose badly on Nov 8 — the time looks to be now for the class of 2020 to make some hard decisions about their nominee.

Here’s a look at where the potential 2020 contenders have come down on Trump to date:

Senator Tom Cotton: The senator from Arkansas has not been quiet about his plans to run for president — regularly visiting Iowa and New Hampshire. But he has been more vague about Trump.

“Donald doesn’t have much choice at this point. He needs to throw himself on the mercy of the American people tomorrow night,” Cotton said on Saturday. “He needs to take full responsibility for his words and his behaviour, he needs to beg their forgiveness, and he needs to pledge to finally change has ways.”

That line of argument reflects the broader way in which Cotton has and will probably continue to deal with Trump: right message (populist, anti-elite, anti-Washington), wrong messenger.

Sen Ted Cruz: Cruz had successfully staked out his place as the “principled conservative” who never gave in to Trump — especially with a controversial refusal to endorse the party’s nominee in a speech at the Republican National Convention. Then Cruz endorsed Trump — for reasons that continue to baffle me. Cruz aides have said he is reconsidering his endorsement in the wake of the hot-mic tape, but I wonder whether the damage is done: pro-Trump forces already hate him, and now lots of the “Never Trump” people regard him as a traitor.

Governor John Kasich: If the party is looking for a candidate in 2020 who was consistently and outspokenly against Trump from the start, the Ohio governor is actually sitting in the catbird’s seat. Kasich has refused to endorse Trump for president and didn’t attend the Republican National Convention, though it was held in the state where he is governor. Kasich has called Trump’s behaviour on the hot-mic tape “disgusting” but hasn’t called on the nominee to step down.

Governor Mike Pence: The Indiana governor and Trump running mate said “yes” to Trump because he had an eye on national office and figured this was his best path out of Indiana and onto the big stage. Pence did himself quite a bit of good in the eyes of donors and party activists with his performance in the vice-presidential debate last week. But no matter what Pence does between now and Nov 8 — short of walking away from the ticket, which I can’t imagine he would do — he will be the “Trump candidate” of 2020. That might not be as terrible a thing as it seems today; there are still lots and lots of people — most of them don’t live in Washington or work in politics — who back Trump and will continue to do so no matter what he says or does.

Sen Marco Rubio: Aside from Kasich, Rubio has probably played the Trump game the best. He skipped the Republican convention, offering a very brief taped endorsement of Trump and then disappearing. In doing so, he avoided the Cruz-ian confrontation with the Trump forces and largely kept himself out of that whole morass. Soon after the hot-mic tape emerged, Rubio tweeted out a condemnation — calling Trump’s comments “egregious” and “impossible to justify”. Rubio still has to get re-elected to his Senate seat in November, but if he does, he is well positioned to prosper in the post-Trump Republican Party.

By arrangement with The Washington Post

Published in Dawn October 10th, 2016