THOUGH the PPP appears jubilant after unofficial results indicated that its candidate had emerged victorious in Thursday’s by-election in Karachi’s PS-127 constituency, it would be too early to comment on the metropolis’s future electoral trends based on this result. After all, it is only one Sindh Assembly seat and there are too many variables currently at work where Karachi’s electoral politics are concerned. What it does indicate, however, is that the MQM’s internal and external problems have affected the party’s performance in the constituency; the Muttahida candidate was runner-up in the race. The seat felt vacant after its representative jumped ship and joined Mustafa Kamal’s PSP. The area is ethnically mixed and covers both rural and urban localities; both PPP and MQM candidates have, in past elections, clinched this seat. Turnout was abysmally low, estimated at 20pc. In a constituency with over 200,000 registered voters, the votes cast in a number of polling stations this paper’s reporters visited struggled to go beyond two digits. It is likely that violence had a role to play in keeping voters away, as Muttahida and MQM-Haqiqi workers clashed on polling day. Vehicles had also been set alight in different parts of Karachi in the run-up to the by-election.

It would be premature to term the election loss the beginning of the end of MQM’s dominance over Karachi’s electoral politics. Even without the use of violence and questionable electoral practices — which the Muttahida has employed in past elections — the party has fared well at the ballot box, as the results of a few recent by-elections, as well as the Sindh local bodies’ polls, show. But in the aftermath of Altaf Hussain’s Aug 22 speech, it is difficult to say how much electoral clout the MQM will retain in urban Sindh under Farooq Sattar’s stewardship. After all, much of the MQM’s militant wing is either on the run or in custody, which has paved the way for fairer electoral contests. Moreover, the Muttahida faces challenges of varying degrees from the PSP and a resurgent Haqiqi. But most importantly, where the Muttahida’s electoral fortunes are concerned, it remains to be seen how successful Farooq Sattar will be in marshalling the political wing and retaining the vote bank. Between now and 2018, much will depend on the MQM’s internal dynamics, especially if the militant wing — still seemingly loyal to Altaf Hussain — decides to mount a challenge to Mr Sattar’s leadership.

Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2016