KARACHI: The Muttahida Qaumi Movement once again found itself in a losing position in its 30-year dominance on the city when it failed to defend a provincial assembly seat in a by-election that had been won by its ticket-holder, in the same way as it had lost a national assembly constituency in the general elections three years ago.

In the recent by-election, the Muttahida lost PS-127 constituency where people voted the Pakistan Peoples Party to power, while in the 2013 general elections the Muttahida lost NA-250 to Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. The MQM had won NA-250 twice in the past — in 1988 and 1990 elections — but it eluded its candidates till 2008 when it won it again only to lose it in the next vote in 2013.

Losing PS-127, however, is altogether different proposition for the MQM. The areas forming this constituency were parts of PS-97 and PS-98 till 1997 general elections before Gen Pervez Musharraf’s administration called for general elections in 2002 wherein the size of the provincial assembly constituency got bigger, triggering highly controversial re-demarcations particularly in the metropolis.

Yet the PPP managed to win the reshaped constituency (PS-127) in 2002 elections as its candidate Abdullah Murad bagged around 5,000 votes more than MQM candidate Shahbaz Hussain’s. But Mr Murad was assassinated in 2004 ensuing a by-election, ironically on May 12, which too was held amid incredible violence and resulted in the victory of MQM’s Yousaf Munir Shaikh who defeated PPP’s Umer Jat by more than 15,000 votes. The turnout in the by-election was close to 50pc, even nine per cent more than what was witnessed in the general election.

It was first time for the MQM to win that seat inflating its previous territory and went on to hold sway on it in the next two elections in 2008 and 2013. It enhanced its lead by 19,000 in 2008 and an incredibly astonishing 44,000 in 2013.

All those times, the PPP leadership had been blaming the MQM of resorting to high-handedness and rigging in polling to win it – a charge the MQM has conveniently denied.

The constituency is composed of the city’s urban and rural areas which fall in the limits of district municipal corporations of Malir and Korangi. It includes Darsano Chhanno, Malir, Khokhrapar, Jaffer-i-Tayyar Society, Brohi Goth, Sachhal Goth, Asu Goth, parts of Saudabad, Malir Cantonment and vast swathes of Gadap Town.

It is generally believed that the PPP’s vote bank has slight edge to the MQM here that got it winning the seat in 2002. However, the MQM claims the number of votes in the urban parts of the constituency was bigger than the rural areas. The party insists a dominant majority of votes in urban areas belong to it, while the PPP claims that even in the urban parts, the MQM had slight edge to the PPP.

The Muttahida leadership says its true force was its active cadres who would motivate voters to mark their ballot in abundance that clearly made difference in elections as its rival parties were not that organised and full of zip.

In the recent by-election, however, the equation changed altogether. The PPP cadres were seen active, its supporters queued zealously outside polling stations and its polling agents were seen everywhere.

The Muttahida blames the rival Muhajir Qaumi Movement, which allegedly attacked its camps outside the polling stations, harassed its voters and forced them to stay indoors. Its leadership says that happened for hours and affected the overall turnout that was 21pc.

Officials in the provincial election commission say the overall turnout was low but it was even lower at the polling stations in violence-ridden neighbourhoods.

Surprisingly, the number of votes secured by the PPP’s winning candidate and margin of his win over the rival belonging to the MQM is almost identical to what was recorded in late Murad’s victory 14 years ago. PPP insists the result reflected the authentic difference of the two parties in the constituency. Clearly, the MQM is not going to buy it, saying, the violence had targeted objective to rob the party of its mandate.

The party is also annoyed as it understands that it was the first by-election after the MQM founder’s controversial speech that thrust the party into a political turbulence. It had to prove that despite divesting itself of its founding leader its vote bank was intact; its support base was uncompromising and its network was infallible as had always been. To remove doubts from the baffled supporters, Muttahida’s London-based leader Wasay Jalil despite being distanced by the party tweeted in favour of the MQM candidate, to no avail.

With its several legislators joining Syed Mustafa Kamal-led Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) every so often, the Muttahida may find itself in testing its prowess on frequent occasions in future. It will hugely need people’s confidence to vote for its candidates in absence of its die-hard election connoisseurs who were expert in making people heading for polling stations. In an age of turmoil, Muttahida needs time and space to reflect.

“MQM needs to be given space, or its vote bank could go anywhere, more possibly to the dangerous jihadi organisations,” says Dr Tauseef Ahmed Khan, a political commentator.

“Not every constituency is like PS-127 where a secular party like PPP has power to replace MQM. Banned organisations have been pitting their candidates and MQM’s failure to keep its votes intact is more likely to benefit those groups.”

Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2016