KARACHI: The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a mega project that could change the economic map of Pakistan, said Dr Kaiser Bengali adding that like any other project it also had several pros and cons.

Dr Bengali was speaking on the CPEC and the challenge of economic development in Balochistan at Karachi University’s distinguished lecture series by the faculty of social sciences on Thursday at the varsity’s arts auditorium. According to Dr Moonis Ahmer, dean of the faculty, the lecture had been organised to try and understand the CPEC and the impact it would have on Balochistan.

“The CPEC is the most significant initiative since the Indus River Basin Works,” said Dr Bengali. “It has the potential to change the economic geography of Pakistan. It is a real game changer.” He added that any questions or issues raised regarding its implementation should not be considered opposition.

Dr Bengali, who has been involved with the CPEC since its inception, said the project was introduced in 2005 during the Musharraf government. He said a memorandum of understanding had been signed by the two governments (China and Pakistan) while a route from Gwadar to Kashghar via Khuzdar, D. I. Khan and Bannu, had been agreed upon. This was called the Central Route.

Controversy, he said, arose in 2013 when there were talks about the route being changed by the new PML-N government. The new route, Dr Bengali explained, went from Gwadar through Multan, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi. This was called the Eastern route. A third route was also mapped, the Western route, which went from Gwadar to Quetta and Zhob to D. I. Khan and further on.

Despite three routes and several projects in the works, Dr Bengali said that so far no feasibility study or environmental impact assessment had been carried out for the economic corridor.

Discussing the routes, he said that when designing a route it was important to examine certain things. “Utility, distance, cost and economy have to be looked at,” he said. “A road is useful if it connects producing and consuming points. You also have to look at opportunity costs, nature or terrain, environment and security conditions.”

On May 28, 2015, during an All Parties Conference for consensus on the CPEC, the participants decided to use the Western route but with a few amendments — it would pass through the Indus Right Bank up to Mianwali and along the Indus to Attock.

“This is what I call the CPEC belt,” said Dr Bengali. “The belt includes Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, districts Mianwali and Attock.” He added that conceptually only projects within the CPEC belt should be considered part of the economic corridor.

Explaining this further, he said that power and other projects were being labelled as CPEC projects. “Every project financed by China cannot be labelled a CPEC project. It should only be projects related to ports and highway,” said Dr Bengali.

Discussing if the CPEC was a game-changer, Dr Bengali explained that to determine this, three conditions should be met.

“There needs to be connectivity. The Gwadar-Kashghar road will benefit Baloc­histan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only if road linkages to adjoining economic centres are created,” he said. “Modern urban, industrial and commercial infrastructures need to be built in cities along the route.”

He added that educational facilities and scholarships needed to be provided to students of Balochistan to create job opportunities.

“The currently designed CPEC (as it seems to be) is likely to impose huge loan repayment and profit remittance to China for decades and may worsen future balance of payments,” he said. “There are also fears that Gwadar will suffer from a demographic change like Karachi. This can be addressed if effective laws are made to ensure enrolment for local residents.”

One way to address these fears and problems, according to Dr Bengali, is to share information with the public or place all CPEC-related agreements before the parliament to ensure transparency.

Published in Dawn, February 26th, 2016