THE war in Balochistan will be won, the political and military leadership of the country vowed in Quetta this week. Whether it can — or ever will — be won militarily is an unknown, but that it is a murky and dirty war is indisputable. Quetta was once again attacked yesterday, this time a bomb killing Frontier Corps personnel near the district courts and adjacent to the so-called red zone in the city. That militants can strike in the heart of Quetta is worrying enough; that they could belong to any of several groups and affiliates is more worrying. While the banned TTP has quickly claimed responsibility for the attack, there is a fair amount of uncertainty at this stage — the TTP and breakaway factions have in recent months taken to claiming any attack that can be fit into the narrative of the Taliban’s war against Pakistan. While Baloch separatists or, in the security establishment’s favoured parlance, the so-called foreign hand could also likely be behind the bombing on Saturday, the incident has raised a very familiar set of questions.

First, how was it possible for attackers to penetrate the thick layer of security that has blanketed Quetta for many years now and the creators of which have had many years of experience in identifying bombs and suicide attackers? After each such attack, there is some attempt at explaining that there is no such thing as fool-proof security or surveillance and intelligence that will in every instance be successful against militants. Yet, the frequency and seeming ease with which militants attack obvious or high-profile targets is worrying. It appears that the militants tend to be one step ahead of the state rather than the other way around. If that is indeed the case, what is being done about it and who is being held responsible? The tendency to close ranks and reject transparency and accountability in the security and intelligence apparatus may well be feeding a sense of complacency. The denizens of not just Quetta but other places in Pakistan surely deserve better.

Second, if the bombing was carried out by the TTP, have they opened a new front against the state? The bombing of a polio centre in January suggested religiously motivated militancy rather than Baloch separatists. If the TTP has, in fact, turned to attacks in Balochistan, where are they coming from? From inside Balochistan? From Fata? Or from across the border in Afghanistan? Given the implications for national stability, the source of possible TTP activity in Balochistan needs to be quickly established. There is also the possibility that a provincial crackdown on sectarian militants has triggered a blowback against the security forces. Will the provincial authorities clarify? And if the bombing on Saturday is the work of Baloch separatists, where does that leave the political and security strategy of the new Balochistan government? As ever, in Balochistan, there are only dead bodies and unanswered questions.

Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2016