As the Senate elections draw closer, aspirants in the PML-N ranks for ministerial posts have resumed lobbying for their chances. Most of them had slowed down the effort last October after the party leadership put off a planned cabinet reshuffle until the battle for 52 Senate seats is over.

Senior party leaders had then argued that an “expansion” in the cabinet would be a better strategy than a “reshuffle” to reward the promising among the PML-N with a ministerial portfolio.

They expected the PML-N to increase its present share of 16 seats in the upper house to two dozen plus, with stalwarts like Zafar Iqbal Jhagra, Nihal Hashmi and Chaudhry Tanvir Ahmad joining the parliament via the Senate.

Secondly, by delaying the induction of new faces in the cabinet until after the Senate election would give the prime minister time to make a fair assessment of the performance of his incumbent ministers.

“In October last year, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chaired a series of meetings in which his ministers made presentations on their achievements and future plans. But they had been in command of their ministries just a little over one year, and some of them argued it was too short a period to pass judgment on their performance,” recalled a PML-N insider.

In March, when the new Senate is elected, the ministers would have been in office for almost two years, time enough for the prime minister to effectively evaluate their work, allowing “a complete and comprehensive restructuring of the cabinet”.

That party line is understandable, but the noisy street agitation by Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf that kept breathing down the neck of the PML-N leadership until December 16 also stayed the hands of the latter from expanding the cabinet.

A senior PML-N office-bearer confided to Dawn that intense jockeying for ministerial offices was going on in the party in those days but the race subsided as crises piled up.

Lately, Ms Maryam Nawaz Sharif is said to have emerged as the most powerful and effective centre of power within the ruling party. Being daughter of prime minister, Ms Sharif’s footprints are seen all over top appointments.

New chairpersons Ms Leila Khan of the Prime Minister’s Youth Programme, and Ms Marvi Memon of the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), were personally recommended by Ms Sharif, said the PML-N source. She is also claimed to have actively participated in the distribution of Senate tickets.

“Considering her keen interest in politics and unparalleled access to the top party leadership makes her the most sought after leader, at least to young party lawmakers aspiring for a cabinet portfolio.”

Of course Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has a powerful say in party affairs and some of those making to the final list would be his nominees. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who is close to Shahbaz Sharif, would also be playing his bit in the selection of new cabinet members. A ‘yes’ from Senator Ishaq Dar, the finance minister who is also known as ‘deputy prime minister’ because of his unbridled authority in the government, will also count.

“Who gets in and who gets out of the cabinet will depend on such factors, but the final decision lies with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif whose judgment nobody in the PML-N can dare to challenge,” said the party office source. “His personal likes and dislikes override everything and everybody else.”

Another PML-N source, however, ventured to say that lawmakers hailing from Southern Punjab were likely to get major share for balance as most of the sitting ministers came from upper Punjab.

Currently the federal cabinet comprises 20 ministers, 10 state ministers and two advisers. Under the 18th Amendment, 11 per cent of the total members of parliament can become part of the cabinet.

That allows PM Nawaz Sharif to have a 50-member cabinet, out of the 342 members of the National Assembly and 104 Senators.

About the intriguing delay in the appointment of Governor of Punjab after the departure of Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar in a huff, the party sources hold the unanimous view that it is also tied to the Senate elections.

Who will make to the governor house and the position of the chairman and deputy chairman Senate as the PML-N and its allies will achieve majority in the upper house, will also be decided as part of overall changes at the top.

“When it comes to awarding prized posts, the Sharifs are known for preferring people loyal to their person over party workers. It will be interesting to see if they have learnt any lesson from ex-governor Punjab-debacle,” said one party leader alluding to the appointment of Chaudhry Sarwar by the Sharifs against the wishes of senior party leaders.

Published in Dawn, February 27th, 2015

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