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OF late, Pakistan has not featured very often in the foreign media. In our context, no news is very good news indeed.
For years now, overseas coverage about Pakistan was full of doom and gloom. Gory images of suicide bombings flooded TV screens across the world. Pundits from Washington to Warsaw made dark predictions about our imminent meltdown. Many armchair strategists foresaw our nuclear warheads falling into the hands of ‘jihadi’ terrorists.
And then, of course, there was the constant refrain about the Pakistani economy going into free fall with foreign exchange reserves and the stock market tumbling overnight. The higher judiciary’s frequent interventions into the executive arena were cited as an example of the dysfunction plaguing the Pakistani state. Imran Khan’s efforts to destabilise the government raised the spectre of yet another military coup. To make matters worse, our cricket team kept losing.
Here, let me confess to being a fully paid-up member of the doom-and-gloom tribe. A couple of years ago, there was little cause for optimism. The ‘jihadis’ were slaughtering their victims at will with the state remaining an impotent witness. The newly elected PML-N government appeared inept. And Karachi was in the grip of seemingly endless bloodletting as criminal gangs, protected by political parties, killed and looted with the PPP government watching silently from the sidelines.
But remarkably quickly, the tide seems to have turned. The Rangers-led operation in Karachi has greatly reduced violent crime, while the military operation in the tribal areas has neutralised the militant threat to a great extent. The $46 billion Chinese investment in infrastructure could be a game-changer. Foreign exchange reserves are above $18 billion, and the stock market is humming along. Oil prices are down. And let’s not forget the wonderful performance of our cricket team in Sri Lanka.
Should the equation change, we could easily revert to the free-for-all.
Adding to all this was the death of Malik Ishaq, the head of a faction of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, together with his sons. This dreaded militant had the blood of scores on his hands. And then there was the arrest of the gang that killed dozens in a bus at Safoora Goth in Karachi. Saad Aziz and his henchmen have also confessed to the murder of political activist Sabeen Mahmud, apart from many others.
So high-fives all around? Not quite so fast. The reality is that many of the changes that have occurred are due to the rare harmony between the civilian government, the army and the judiciary. The judicial commission’s verdict on rigging charges has thwarted an unwarranted attempt to derail democracy, while the recent Supreme Court decision to reject appeals against the establishment of military courts has avoided a possible clash between the two institutions.
But as we know only too well, this new-found accord has been arrived at by the personalities who head their various organisations. Should the equation change before these gains are consolidated, we could easily revert to the free-for-all that characterised the last few years.
By far the biggest threat we have faced is that of violent extremism. And while the highly successful ongoing military operation has defanged most of the militant networks in Fata, the poisonous ideology that gave birth to them continues to circulate unchecked in our classrooms, mosques, madressahs and the media. Despite the resolve expressed in the National Action Plan, little has been done to crack down on the purveyors of a violent extremist ideology.
Other long-term reforms remain largely ignored. Our public educational and health systems have virtually collapsed. The population continues to grow at an unsustainable rate. Our shortfall in energy generation is hobbling industrial growth. The violent insurgency in Balochistan, and the state’s ruthless attempts to quell it, go on claiming innocent lives. And sadly, Sindh is still controlled and strangulated by a cynical, venal PPP leadership.
As you can see, I’m back in my doom-and-gloom mode. But if we are to indeed put Pakistan on track towards peace and prosperity, some serious decisions need to be taken, and a consensus evolved. And while the military has taken the lead in the anti-terror campaign, it obviously cannot deliver on the economic and social fronts.
One problem in reforming the madressah system as well as our school curricula, where deemed problematic, is that such a step would lead to an immediate confrontation with our clerics and religious parties. Over time, their street power has increased, even if their representation in our assemblies has not. Musharraf, at the height of his power, backed down when it came to reforming the madressahs.
So how to evolve a consensus on this divisive issue? In a country that has been tending to move towards fundamentalism since Ziaul Haq, no politician wants to take on our clergy. With the space for rational debate shrinking rapidly, we seem stuck in our trajectory.
But whoever said a glass always had to be full to the brim? I’ll raise my half-full tumbler and toast the good news. So cheers!
Published in Dawn, August 8th, 2015
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