THE Potohar-rain fed areas of upper Punjab landscape are changing, thanks mainly to the official initiative of first declaring it an ‘olive and grape valley’ and then pursuing the project seriously.

A drive through the area now offers huge spots of both fruits. Though they are still to form a consistent pattern, as the Punjab government would like to see and promises to do, the early success of the initiative can certainly be felt by a traveler.

The Punjab bureaucracy, led by its minister Farrukh Javed, is excited about the changing picture in otherwise a picturesque region. Without putting a damper on the excitement, one may point out that the factors that have led to this initial success in the region also contain the seed of its failure, if not checked along the development of initiative till it becomes commercially viable to stand on its own.

The two factors leading to the early success are: import of exotic varieties of olive and grape and hugely subsidised (up to 60pc) high efficiency irrigation systems (drip and sprinkle) in the region

The two factors leading to the early success are: import of exotic varieties of olive and grape and hugely subsidised (up to 60pc) high efficiency irrigation systems (drip and sprinkle) in the region. The Italians, working on some olive projects in the area have regularly brought in huge quantities of different varieties and sold them to local farmers. The Pakistan Oil Development Board has also imported huge quantities in the name of research and threw them in the area. This has led to huge area coming under the plant, especially in bigger farm houses – built in the area because of its natural beauty.

On the second plank, the Punjab government has been able to remove a huge hindrance when it extended Rs36bn high efficiency irrigation system to the growth of these fruits. The farmers, especially those falling on immediate lower planks of mini-dams, per force had to go for both these fruits.

The rest of the region is yet to follow. A careful look on the area reveals that planting of both these fruits, especially olive, is still restricted to massive lawns of private houses and just around these mini-dams. Their spread is a must for the success of next phase of the planning.

That is precisely the point where the Punjab government needs to put in an extra effort, take the lead and help these fruits’ cultivation spread in wider area. It can only happen if Punjab is able to do two things: keep building those mini-dams, as it has promised over 5,000 dams, and keep installing drip and sprinkle systems at the same time. And more crucially, help these plants spread far and wide – beyond private lawns and foothills of mini-dams. The process can only be ensured and quickened if planting assumes commercial proportion and local olive oil extraction starts replacing imports.

In order to do that, Punjab needs to see that it only imports olive varieties that have enough extractable oil in them. The current ones seem to be below the mark, if the local scientists are to be believed. Punjab can certainly be given the margin that it was not able to check early imports for quality because it was too concerned with introduction of the plants and success of its own initiative in the area.

It is now time to raise the bar; check quality of the imported varieties. Most of the plants are still three to four years old and have only started yielding early fruits. In next two years, these plants would be in full bloom and start yielding to their potential.

At that stage, they would need a local commercial extraction plant, which are still missing. A few official institutions have smaller plants but they would not be enough for the success of the entire initiative, which is a must to save a portion of the $3bn edible oil import bill.

Apart from this, the provincial government has to ensure success of the private sector by facilitating land acquisition for bigger farms and putting up extraction plants. Punjab scientists have long been arguing that both these things can be done with little effort.

The province has huge land falling between river Jehlum and Rawalpindi (roughly 150km) on both sides of the motorway, where it can plant olive trees to remove the fear of first extraction plant that it may not get enough fruit to run a commercially successful operation.

For the second step, it can opt for a Chinese model for putting up a plant; it can offer the private sector a partnership with an option to later buy official shares out once the plant is up and running.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, February 16th, 2015

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