DILI: East Timor is facing an uncertain future as resistance hero Xanana Gusmao prepares to step down as prime minister after helping hold the tiny nation together during the chaotic early years of its independence.

The country’s first president after independence in 2002 and now premier, Gusmao was among a group of guerilla fighters who emerged as leaders after the struggle against Indonesian occupation that followed the end of Portuguese rule in 1975.

However, the charismatic 68-year-old has signalled his intention to step aside as head of government, a move that would deprive Asia’s youngest nation of a unifying leader credited with resolving a string of crises.

“Everyone is scared of him resigning as prime minister,” said Lino Marques Sarmento, a 30-year-old who works at a tourist resort, voicing fears that factional violence could break out without Gusmao’s personal authority.

It is not yet clear when he will step aside. Earlier this year he pledged to resign in September but missed that deadline, although analysts believe it is inevitable the ageing leader will not run again at elections in 2017.

But while the departure of Gusmao, who spent years living in the jungle during Indonesian occupation and was also imprisoned for a lengthy period in Jakarta, would take East Timor into uncharted territory, many feel it is time he moved on.

Some say his dominance of politics is holding up the transition to a new generation of leaders in the poor, half-island nation, seen as necessary to move away from tensions caused by old rivalries among different factions in the resistance. His government has grown increasingly unpopular due to accusations of corruption and nepotism, with several ministers accused of graft. “I think we need him — but East Timor also needs new leaders,” said political analyst Matias Boavida from the National University of East Timor.

Resistance hero

There is little doubt over the key role of Gusmao, born Jose Alexandre Gusmao, in helping secure East Timor’s independence in 2002 and steering the nation of 1.1 million people through troubled periods.

When Portugal withdrew in 1975 after deciding to dissolve its colonial empire, the Timorese declared independence, only for the Indonesian military to invade days later.

Gusmao joined the resistance and later became the head of its military wing, Falintil, helping to organise the opposition and continuing to lead the struggle even during a years-long stint behind bars in Jakarta.

On his return to East Timor after the 1999 referendum that paved the way for independence, Gusmao urged reconciliation, persuading pro-Indonesian militiamen who had gone on a murderous rampage following the vote to return home.

Gusmao also helped to keep a lid on communal tensions after a crisis in 2006, when soldiers sacked from the army launched a mutiny which sparked factional violence that left dozens dead and forced 150,000 into makeshift camps.

After the crisis, the then president merged the defence and interior ministries and put himself in charge, helping to restore stability — a move which a leader with less authority may have found difficult, observers say.

Gusmao, who has always claimed he never wanted to be a political leader, has hinted for some time that he will step down but analysts believe that the lack of an obvious successor is one factor that has stopped him.

Whoever takes over is likely to come from the current, old crop of politicians and Gusmao will probably keep some sort of role, possibly in the cabinet, observers say.

This may mean little change in the short term — but analysts say the departure of such a dominant figure from a leadership role would set in motion the transition to a new generation.

Some speculate a rapprochement with his old foe, former prime minister Mari Alkatiri, has helped persuade Gusmao that the time is approaching to resign. He has been reassured by Alkatiri’s pledge he will not seek to become premier, they say.

“What we need is stability and peace. From confrontation, we realised that we need each other,” said Alkatiri.

While Gusmao’s departure will be a step into the unknown, calls are growing louder for him to bow out.

“It will not be easy for the country’s weak institutions to adapt to a less personalised system of government, but they will never have the opportunity to develop as long as it remains in place,” said a report earlier this year from Jakarta-based think tank the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict.

Published in Dawn, November 15th , 2014