LAHORE, April 11: The latest count of cotton that should be the final output, places the crop at 9.67 million bales, short of the last year’s produce by 4.3 per cent. The actual percentage of reduction in the crop size should be higher because calculations have been made on the basis of arrivals with ginners by April 1. Cotton continued arriving last year after this date, but that is unlikely to happen this time because of high prices of the crop that are reported to have induced growers to offload their produce early instead of waiting for the market to take an escalating price turn.

Reports about the Sindh crop were high and the yield from the province was predicted to be above the target of two million bales. But the final size of the produce has dipped by 5.17 per cent.

The picture from Punjab is both better and worse. The crop size declined due to a 14 per cent reduction in sowing acreage, but the 4.08 per cent lower output suggests a slightly higher yield per acre. But the increase is negligible and no cause for basing a case of higher yield in the figure.

One reason of scuttled output in Punjab was pest attack in districts of Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajan Pur that affected many fields and considerably undermined the crop. Minor pest attacks were reported from other points also but they were controlled early and did not cause any significant damage.

The other reason generally cited is shortage of water, but strictly speaking, the crop was not hit by the kind of scarcity of water that could affect its size. Experts feel that water was by and large sufficient and not a relevant factor in the performance of the crop.

Despite the reduced crop, farmers were generally rewarded as prices of cotton remained high all through due to international shortfall in cotton production and higher worldwide prices of the crop. At 12 per cent, the shortage makes this year’s the smallest crop in the last five seasons.

Many experts expect that higher prices would lead to increased acreage for the next crop. Dr Zahoor Ahmed, former director of the Central Cotton Research Institute, feels that high price of cotton should serve as incentive to growers next year.

Sowing for the next crop has already commenced in lower Sindh. Reports say the crop is being extended to another five per cent acre. While Punjab would start cultivating cotton by the middle of next month after the harvesting of wheat. Farmers of the province are also expected to grow cotton on a wider area as they stand encouraged by the high returns from the last crop.