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TOKYO: Japan’s plans to meet its obligations under the Kyoto accord on global warming could be in jeopardy as public safety concerns hinder the construction of new nuclear reactors low in greenhouse gas emissions.
A string of safety scandals has shattered public faith in the nation’s nuclear industry, pushing back deadlines for rolling out a dozen or so reactors in a country that relies on nuclear energy for about a third of its power.
The delay, analysts say, could thwart Japan’s aim of cutting greenhouse gases, which many scientists believe could cause disastrous climatic changes, by six per cent from 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
“I think it has become quite clear that domestic policy (promoting nuclear energy) alone will not be enough if Japan is to meet its Kyoto Protocol target,” Kazuya Fujime, managing director at the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) said.
The Kyoto Protocol treaty was drawn up in 1997 and requires signatories to reduce gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2012.
Emissions in Japan of some 90 per cent of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main gas concerned, derives from energy consumption and Tokyo sees nuclear power, which generates no CO2, as key to meeting its global pledge.
But the latest long-term business plans by the nation’s power utilities show that only eight nuclear reactors are due to begin operating by fiscal 2010/11.
That’s down from last year’s forecast for 12 units and also far short of the roughly 10-13 new nuclear reactors that the government sees as necessary for it to achieve its goal of cutting the harmful gases by 2010.
Analysts see even fewer reactors being built.
“(The number of) new nuclear reactors is a very optimistic outlook...the IEEJ’s forecast is for five new units,” Fujime says.
He adds that there are other experts who believe the three nuclear reactors that are already under construction will be the only new units in operation by 2010.
Spokesmen at power firms that have delayed reactor construction say they are behind schedule because of recent industry safety troubles.
Analysts say the power industry is getting more cautious about building new reactors because power demand is expected to grow at a slower pace, while ongoing industry deregulation is expected to lead to increased competition.
OTHER OPTIONS: Some analysts say Japan should review its Kyoto policy goals, which lean too heavily on the use of nuclear power to cut CO2 emissions, saying other measures should also be encouraged.
Britain, which launched a voluntary CO2 emissions trading scheme in April 2002, said last month that it was on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol targets.
Japan, on the other hand, is trailing.
CO2 emissions resulting from energy consumption in the fiscal year ended March 2002 amounted to 1.13 billion tons in Japan, down 2.7 per cent from a year earlier but up 6.3 per cent from 1990/91 levels.
A Trade Ministry official attributed the year-on-year decline to Japan’s prolonged economic slump.
“By far the main reason for the decline is the deterioration in the economy...which meant less energy consumption,” he said.
OUTPUT KEY?: The government target for launching 10-13 nuclear reactors is based on the goal for Japan’s nuclear output to be 418.6 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in fiscal 2010/11, accounting for some 40.7-42.0 per cent of total power output.
This compares with 2002/03 when nuclear power accounted for roughly 31.4 per cent of total power output.
Officials at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said they believe that the output targets can still be reached — even without all the planned new reactors coming online.
“It is not just a case of counting how many nuclear reactors are needed...but it is a matter of reaching our target in terms of nuclear power generation,” one METI official said.
METI officials say raising the operating rate of current nuclear power plants is one way of increasing supply if opposition to building new nuclear facilities continues.
That opposition, particularly from local communities around the plants, shows no sign of abating after a string of scandals fanned safety concerns.
In the latest incident, Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc. — Japan’s largest utility — was forced to successively close down its nuclear reactors after it admitted in August last year that it had falsified data during safety checks.
It has already closed down all but one of its 17 nuclear reactors, while no timetable has been set for their restart.—Reuters
