JOHANNESBURG: With a little bit of trust and goodwill on the part of Southern Africa’s leaders, 2003 could see peace take hold across the region.

“There have been a lot of developments in the region in the past year, and prospects for peace looks good, even if there is little to show for it right now,” says South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, researcher Hans Pienaar.

Undoubtedly, the most important development of the year is the signing of peace-deal to end the war that has been raging the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since 1998.

South African President, Thabo Mbeki, believes that peace in the DRC is potentially the key to peace in the region. “You have this massive country in the middle of the continent. It is quite clear that once you have peace in the DRC, it will impact positively in that region.” He was speaking shortly after the signing of the agreement, two weeks ago. South Africa has been hosting the DRC peace talks since last year.

Mbeki points out that rebel movements from Burundi and Rwanda — among others — have set-up base in the DRC, and their cross-border insurgencies are contributing to conflict in these countries. If the new DRC government is able to regain control of the border areas in which these rebel movements are operating, then the peace deal will contribute to ending conflict and building stability among its neighbours.

In terms of the deal, incumbent DRC President, Joseph Kabila will keep his position, but four vice-presidents, representing the main rebel groups and the unarmed political opposition, will be appointed. Cabinet posts will also be divided between the existing government and the main rebel groups.

Over the next two years, the government’s military forces and the armed rebel groups will be unified into a single national army. Once this process is complete, a poll will be held to elect a national government.

Mbeki is concerned about how smoothly the posts in the new cabinet will be divided up between the rebel groups — which must still be negotiated — and the safety of those leaders who will be taking up posts in the transitional government. However, he expressed confidence that the peace agreement will hold.

Pienaar points out that the deal opens the way for the United Nations mission to the DRC to take a much more active role in the peace process. Until now, it has only been able to observe violations of previous cease-fire agreements; now there is an agreement they can enforce. He adds that international community’s support for the deal is essential — if only to convince the government and the rebel movements that everybody is sticking to their part of the deal.

Pienaar is convinced the peace process has firmly taken root in Angola — where the rebel movement, UNITA, and the ruling party are getting ready to hold democratic elections for a new government in the new year. The armed forces of the rebel movement are also being integrated into the national army.

The civil war in Angola has been raging since 1975, but the country has quickly moved towards peace since the death of UNITA leader, Jonas Savimbi, in Feb 2002.

However, Pienaar is not optimistic about a quick end to the conflict in Burundi.

Although negotiators — led by South African Deputy President, Jacob Zuma, have painfully cobbled together a peace agreement and a government of national unity for Burundi in 2003, one of the main armed rebel groups, the Palipehutu Forces for National Liberation (Palipehutu-FNL) has withdrawn from all peace talks.

The Palipehutu-FNL have made it clear that they are not interested in talking to the Burundi transitional government until their demands — which include the dissolving of the national army — are met. They have continued to launch armed attacks on the transitional government.

The big problem, say analysts, is that negotiators have no political, economic or military leverage with which to force the Palipehutu-FNL to join the peace process — and their only option on is to carry on talking.

The political and economic crises in Zimbabwe are a worrying source of instability in the region. But Pienaar believes there is little chance of it erupting into an armed civil or international conflict — although social tensions will continue to increase, fanned by the famine, which is threatening half the country’s population.

He also warns that the food shortage and famine, which is threatening an estimated 14 million people across the region, may spark social and political tensions across Southern Africa — and this may disrupt some of the key peace process that are underway.

But, for now, he is optimistic that political leaders in Southern Africa are ready to give peace a chance in the new year.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.