IN an event that alarmed Nasa scientists last month, almost the entire surface layer of ice over Greenland has melted in the space of four days. The event raised fears about the pace and future consequences of climate change.

Equally rapid melting of most of the glaciers is taking place in the Siachen region but the culprit there is not the climate change. It is the military presence there on a large scale.

The images released by Nasa show a rapid thaw between July 8 and 12, when measurements from three satellites showed a swift expansion of the area of melting ice, from about 40 per cent of the ice sheet surface to 97 per cent.

The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet. The ice in the current ice sheet is as old as 110,000 years. Some scientists predict that climate change may be near a “tipping point” where the entire ice sheet will melt in about 2000 years. Then, it would lead to a global sea level rise of 23.6 ft.

In 2009, Pakistan Meteorological Department’s chief had identified the presence of the Indian army in the Siachen region and its various activities as the source for rapid melting of the glaciers. But Arshad H. Abbasi, a Pakistani water expert, holds both India and Pakistan responsible for the damage and says their claim over Siachen glacier has turned the region into the highest ‘battleground on Earth’. Dr Qamaruz Zaman Chaudhry says the Indians are “cutting glacial ice by using chemicals” which is speeding up the melting of the ice.

India’s leading glaciologist Iqbal Hasnain believes that the glaciers in the region are melting twice as fast as expected, forming glacial lakes which can be dangerous if they burst out of the fragile moraine dams which hold them in place.

He has listed 52 dangerous glacial lakes in Pakistan alone and predicts that soon the soldiers stationed in Siachen would be ‘fighting’ on the ground since the glacier is melting so fast. “Siachen is in bad shape. They are dumping garbage into the cracks, accelerating the melting”.

Since April 1984, according to Abbasi, both the countries have maintained permanent military presence up to the height of over 22,500 ft.

To enable the forces to defend their position, both countries, especially India, has developed cantonments, forward base-camps, training schools, aviation workshops and huge ammunition storages in the area. The infrastructure has also been developed by cutting and melting of glacial ice. A kerosene pipeline has been laid down on main glaciers by the Indian Army. Kerosene is then supplied for stoves provided at every post for heating and cooking purposes.

Abbasi says that helicopter flights, the only mode of transport in the region for carrying supplies like ration, kerosene, medicines, fibre huts and snow scooters to the glacier, has accelerated the pace of melting on an unprecedented rate. In first year of occupation, Siachen glacier started losing ice, which created deceptive crevasses hidden by fresh snow. According to the data compiled over the years by the Directorate of Military Intelligence, Delhi, the military presence had raised the temperature of the glacier from 2.6 C to 10.2 C in 1991.

The University of Newcastle, UK, in a 2006 report, pointed out that an unbiased, neutral testimony has proved that it is not global warming but Siachen conflict that is not only causing melting of the glacier but also changing the climate of Ladakh. In the study, the temperature data of six towns of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and three towns of Indian held Kashmir covering the period 1961-2000 reveals a strong contrast between the behaviours of two parts of the same region having same geographical features. It was noted that while the temperature in Srinagar and Leh is continually on the rise, the mean annual winter temperature in GB is decreasing.

The declining temperature, it is worth noting, has helped glaciers to grow in Karakorum. This expansion of glaciers was also confirmed by a research funded by Nasa and published in 2008. The team comprising six renowned glaciologists conducted an extensive investigation of 265 glaciers to estimate average retreat rates and mass balance during the period from 1980 to 2004. The result shows that 65 per cent of the glaciers either advanced or showed no change. The study concluded that the glaciers in the Karakorum are behaving differently from the glaciers of eastern Himalaya.

Andreas Schild, the Director General of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been quoted by a Pakistani writer as saying that the glaciers on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control in Kashmir are “not only stable but moderately growing.” This development is an interesting phenomenon. He says that some glaciers in the Karakorams are growing probably because of the Westerlies (winds that bring winter snows) getting stronger. His conclusion was that there was no major melting going on in the glaciers located above 5,400 m. And most of Pakistan’s big glaciers, like Baltoro, are located above this altitude.

Coming back to Greenland event, in a statement on Nasa’s website, scientists said the satellite data was so striking that they thought at first there had to be a mistake. They attributed the sudden melt to a heat dome, or a burst of unusually warm air, which hovered over Greenland from July 8 to 16. The country had returned to more typical summer conditions by July 21 or 22. It was the second unusual event in Greenland within days, after an iceberg the size of Manhattan broke off from the Petermann Glacier. But the rapid melt was viewed as more serious.

About half of Greenland’s surface ice sheet melts during summer. This is the seventh summer in a row with this pattern of warm air being lifted on to the ice sheet. What is surprising is the persistence in this anomaly. The most immediate consequences are sea level rise and a further warming of the Arctic.

According to a new study, the decline in sea ice around the Arctic is now at least 70 per cent and may even be up to 95 per cent. This loss opens up new northern sea routes and opportunities to drill for oil and gas under the newly assessable sea bed.