US-Pakistan disarray

Published December 10, 2011

JUST how grim is the state of the US-Pakistan relationship was made clear by comments from America's highest-ranking military officer in Washington on Friday. In the words of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen Martin Dempsey, the relationship is “a mess”. His words were blunt, but should come as no surprise. The Pakistan military is clearly convinced that its soldiers were intentionally attacked, a stance Gen Dempsey called “incomprehensible”. The head of Pakistan's military operations, in briefings to lawmakers on Thursday, apparently made no bones about this belief that the Nato strike was deliberate and perhaps even pre-planned. Theoretically such an idea would imply the end of any alliance there may have been. Although a move that extreme is unlikely to take place, Gen Dempsey's Leavenworth classmate Gen Kayani has deployed air defence weapons along the Pak-Afghan border, authorised troops to defend themselves without waiting for official go-ahead and recalled border coordination personnel, apparently for consultations. So calling it a “mess” would not be an inaccurate way to describe this increasingly dysfunctional military relationship.

But while the militaries continue to talk at each other, the governments finally seem to be talking to each other. After its initial uproar, the Pakistani administration appears to have decided it is time to dial the tension down a notch. Reports emerging from Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar's meeting with the American ambassador indicate that the Pakistan government has signalled a desire to move on from the incident, even if that involves reshaping the terms of cooperation. And while there was some tough talk from the prime minister during his meeting with Gen Kayani on Friday, in recent days he too has toned down his rhetoric and acknowledged the reality that the relationship is an important one.

Probably deliberately rather than through lack of coordination, the army continues to take a different approach. Initially the two militaries did need to adopt aggressive postures to maintain troop morale and protect their national security credentials. But the price of continued lack of cooperation or a breakdown of border coordination is too high. The American investigation should be sped up — as Ambassador Munter has indicated — and Pakistan needs to cooperate with it. There are risks to doing so, of course; it will be difficult for the administration to defend an outcome that might be unpopular with the public. But by leaving itself out of both the Bonn conference and the investigation, Pakistan is missing out on opportunities to clarify the terms of future cooperation and to shape outcomes along the border and next door in Afghanistan. Even if the line taken is a tough one, it is time to start talking.

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