A dark, hot future

Published July 1, 2011

As I flip across our broad spectrum of TV news, one anchor's face blurs into another's. And while the international and domestic news might vary from one day to another, one constant remains: the growing anger over the worsening power crisis.

Many citizens have been interviewed expressing their outrage at being subjected to hours of power cuts every day in mid-summer. In this context, the Wapda chief's statement that he does not expect the power crisis to abate before 2018 comes as a rude shock. Speaking to a parliamentary committee, Shakeel Ahmed Durrani stated that the current generation capacity was 13,669 megawatts against the demand of 18, 114MW.

There are several aspects to this long-running issue. Firstly, the lack of seriousness successive governments have displayed in tackling it. When the PPP government signed a number of agreements with private power companies in the late '80s, there was much hue and cry that several PPP leaders had made millions. I have no evidence about the alleged corruption, but I do know that 31 per cent of the power being supplied to the national grid today comes from independent power projects (IPPs).

Since then, little has been done to augment electricity capacity. The PML-Q suffered in the last election due to its incompetence in this area (among many others); this government is equally indifferent. Indeed, it is making things worse by its mishandling of the ongoing dispute between the management and workers of the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC).

The Karachi Press Club has been virtually besieged by KESC workers that have been on strike for weeks. They have been visited by politicians, including several from the ruling party, who encourage them to stick to their guns. Many KESC workers are accused of preventing the utility company's staff from carrying out repairs and maintenance, and damaging the company's infrastructure. The police have remained silent witnesses.

One friend who lives in a rich neighbourhood told me that after a power cut lasting 12 hours, during which residents on his street received no assistance from the KESC, they were approached by the company's field staff who offered to fix the fault — but for a price. Each household contributed Rs500 and sure enough, power was restored immediately.

Obviously, this kind of blackmail is bad for KESC's image, as well as for its balance sheet. A couple of days ago, the company's workers were, while leaving their head office, attacked by union activists wielding sticks and stones; several were injured, two of them seriously. Once again, the police stood silently by.

When Abraaj, the present holding company, took KESC over from the Saudi majority shareholder, Al-Jomaih, it brought with it a much higher level of professionalism. As part of the reorganisation, the management decided to focus on core areas and reduce its workforce, offering a golden handshake to around 4,000 workers that included cleaners, drivers and security staff. A deadline for acceptance was issued. After the deadline expired, though, the workers were let go of and, after protests started, included in a surplus pool to receive salaries at home. The protesting workers say that this is hardly the same as voluntarily accepting a golden handshake, and insist on being paid overtime and fuel allowance as well, which the company has refused to do.

In the past, the overtime scam was an open secret, with union leaders earning large amounts. As long as the KESC was a public-sector entity, nobody really cared. But once it had been privatised, cost accountants zeroed in on this fraud.

The point of privatisation is to encourage greater efficiency and better service for consumers. Clearly, KESC is not being allowed to deliver on either, something other potential investors must be noting with some dismay. Our politicians, never famous for their management skills, must understand that if they intend to sell off other loss-making public sector corporations, they cannot afford to send out a signal that they are unwilling or unable to provide normal security to foreign investors.

As usual, ugly rumours of who and what is behind KESC's present woes are swirling around. There is talk about powerful politicians wanting to force Abraaj out so their proxies can step in. While Pakistan's rumour factories work overtime, this particular story can be easily put to rest by withdrawing the tacit political support the workers that are on strike seem to be getting.

In their effort to boost ratings, our TV anchors seldom bother with facts and figures. For instance, when they complain stridently about how expensive electricity has become in Pakistan, they omit to mention that it is the cheapest in oil-importing Asian countries. Increasing reliance on gas and oil to produce power has caused generating cost to double since 2007. Indeed, subsidies on electricity now amount to more than what Pakistan spends on health and education.

Another major contributing factor to the energy crisis is the current issue of 'circular debt'. As far as I know, this problem is unique to Pakistan. Over the years, many government departments and public sector corporations have gone into massive arrears on their electricity bills. But because of their political clout, they have not been disconnected. As power companies are not being paid for the units they have billed for, their ability to pay oil and gas suppliers has been reduced. These companies, in turn, have been forced to cut supplies, thus reducing power generation.

Individual consumers and private industries that have seen the duration of loadshedding increase year by year are understandably furious. Quite rightly, they point out that they have been paying their bills, and are being penalised for the government's inability to pay its dues. For instance, Pakistan State Oil, the country's largest fuel supplier, is owed Rs131bn by various power companies. Currently, the power shortage is costing the economy around $3.5bn per year.

So how do we get out of this vicious circle? Somehow, the government has to find a way of clearing its debts. It also needs to impose fiscal responsibility among its departments and various loss-making corporations. The subsidies these white elephants receive is equivalent to all households below the poverty line getting Rs41,000 per year. PIA alone has accumulated losses of Rs91bn. One way to staunch this haemorrhage is to privatise these entities. But as KESC's experience shows, investors can expect a rough ride in Pakistan. n

[Tailpiece: I have drawn much of the above data from www.economycheck.com.pk, a wonderful resource that ought to be used by all journalists and students of Pakistan's economy].

irfan.husain@gmail.com

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