BRUSSELS, April 10: European Union governments are keeping a close watch on President Pervez Musharraf’s preparations for an April 30 referendum but diplomats say opinion in the 15-nation bloc is divided on how to react to the move.

The EU has so far steered clear of making any official comments on the referendum even as Pakistanis across Europe query their embassies on whether they will be able to vote on April 30. But no one at any Pakistani embassy knows if this will be the case. “We are waiting for instructions,” said one source.

EU policymakers confess to being undecided on the implications of President Musharraf’s surprise move on Pakistani politics and on Europe’s relations with Islamabad.

“Yes, there are concerns about the referendum, especially over how it fits into the global picture of Pakistan’s troubled politics,” one senior EU diplomat told Dawn. “It was therefore important that Islamabad provided European governments with more information and cleared up lingering uncertainties,” he said.

Pakistan watchers in Europe’s key institutions say they fear a polarization of Pakistani political life but admit that the country need strong leadership, especially to deal with post-September 11 challenges of religious extremism. “Pakistan needs a leader who can deliver,” said one EU diplomat but he warned that moves to give the army a permanent political role in Pakistan was causing deep unease in many European countries.

EU hesitation over the future course of Pakistan comes at a time of rapidly improving relations between Europe and Islamabad. Political contacts between the two sides, revived after President Musharraf’s decision to join the US-led anti-terror coalition, have now been institutionalized, with a “troika” of senior EU officials visiting Pakistan last month.

A new trade package improving Pakistan’s access to Europe’s textile market has been in force since January 1. EU aid worth up to 50 million euros is expected to be approved shortly for social action programmes and a livestock development project.

But the European Parliament, widely known for its focus on human rights and democracy, has still to give its approval to a new EU-Pakistan agreement signed last November.