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HERAT: President Hamid Karzai is putting the squeeze on a provincial governor accused of running Afghanistan's wealthiest province like a personal fiefdom.
But he will need to tread carefully or risk sparking a new security crisis and uniting opponents against him ahead of elections due in September, analysts say.
On March 21, the self-styled "Amir" of the province of Herat, Ismail Khan, lost his eldest son and only representative in the Kabul government, Civil Aviation Minister Mirwais Sadiq, in a clash with a commander recently put in place by Karzai.
The government denies a charge by Khan's supporters that Sadiq's death was premeditated, but analysts say the government's decision to rush 1,500 Afghan National Army troops to Herat after the fighting that followed does at least appear opportunistic.
Herat, Afghanistan's wealthiest city, is the capital of the province of the same name and controls the bulk of trade with neighbouring Iran. Until last month, it had been one of the most peaceful parts of the country, not least due to Khan's firm rule.
But tension has festered between the provincial administration and the central government almost since Khan's private militia captured the city from the Taliban in late 2001.
Government officials have accused Khan of siphoning off desperately needed customs revenues to build his power base and have been concerned by both his hardline Muslim tendencies and a personality cult he has fostered to build his local profile above that of the leadership in Kabul.
Khan has emerged as a powerful potential backer of an ethnic Tajik alliance aiming to field a candidate against Karzai, despite his strong backing from the United States and its allies, in the September elections.
Vikram Parekh of the International Crisis Group think tank believes Kabul aims to replace Khan as governor given Herat's vital economic importance and the election threat he poses.
"The administration has been trying to exert various pressures on Khan, including deployment of the army on the pretext of a law and order problem that does not really exist," he said.
He noted that Kabul had recently appointed a rival to Khan as governor of the neighbouring province of Farah, while Bagdhis to the north was a powerbase of General Zahir Nayebzada, the commander whose forces are blamed for Sadiq's death.
DEMOBILIZATION: In coming months, Khan faces the prospect of having to watch the start of the demobilization of his private army, one of the most powerful in Afghanistan, as part of an internationally backed plan to ensure security for the elections.
But the former guerrilla commander, who made his name battling Soviet occupation in the 1980s, is not the sort to allow himself to be brushed aside, and has a considerable support base.
Even the many citizens who dislike the governor's heavy handed rule and who welcomed the national army to Herat say they value the security he has provided, and would be unlikely to welcome interference that affected stability.
Tensions have risen since the fighting. Khan has announced a replacement of Nayebzada as commander of Herat's 17th division, but the government says it has not approved this. Provincial officials have become increasingly defensive about their leader and critical of Kabul.
"Ismail Khan has played a very positive role in developing Herat," said one, who did not want to be identified. "There are millions of dollars going into Kabul, but what has President Karzai achieved? Everything there is still a mess."
The main local opposition to Khan, a shura of professionals unhappy at having been sidelined by his administration, has said Karzai should keep the national army in Herat to ensure security for elections and prevent a backlash against them. But Parekh said it was unclear how long such a large proportion of the still infant force could remain.
The senior US military officer in Herat, Lieutenant-Colonel James Hand, expressed concern that the deployment was tying up troops who should be helping US-led forces hunt Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in the south and east.
A further rise in tension on the border with Iran would not be welcomed by the United States, but at the same time Washington backs militia disarmament to allow for successful elections that could boost President George W. Bush's re-election bid.
Officials of Khan's militia say their forces are needed both for local and national defence given their proximity to Iran, but Hand said he did not believe Khan would resist the disarmament.-Reuters
