ISLAMABAD, Sept 27: The Indus River System Authority (Irsa)'s technical committee on Monday approved 56 per cent average water shortage estimated by Punjab for the coming Rabi season, from October 1, 2004, to March 31, 2005.

The technical committee meeting, presided over by Irsa chairman Rahim Khan Zarkun, however, rejected shortage estimates of Irsa itself, Wapda, Sindh and the NWFP. Punjab had finalized its projections 100 per cent on the basis of drought years since the construction of Tarbela Dam in 1967 while Irsa and Sindh had also given some weight to the wet climate in their calculations, which made a difference of about 19 per cent in shortages.

On the basis of 56 per cent shortage, overall water availability during the Rabi season would be a little over 18 MAF (million acre feet) as compared to 23 MAF estimated under 37 per cent shortage. The season has a total requirement of 36.5 MAF and it would now start with a 5.3 MAF carry-over. Wapda had estimated about 49 per cent water shortage during the season.

A brief statement handed over to reporters after the meeting said: "Estimated figures of the availability of water presented by Wapda, the NWFP, Punjab, Sindh and Irsa was discussed in detail. It was agreed that Irsa would finalize the figures taking into account the drought years occurring during the post-Tarbela period".

It added: "Irsa has re-evaluated the water availability projections for the Rabi 2004-05 and on an average shortage of 56 per cent is expected in the coming Rabi. These anticipated figures will be reviewed in Irsa advisory committee meeting to be held shortly".

Irsa member from Sindh was absent from the meeting held on Saturday and Monday. Irsa sources said the approval of 56 per cent shortage, which is higher than 37 per cent estimated by Irsa and supported by Sindh and the NWFP, would clearly put Sindh at a disadvantage.

Sindh would suffer because it required higher quantities of water in the early period of Rabi for wheat sowing when the water distribution would be made on the basis of 56 per cent shortage, they said.

In case, the shortage is lower (at 37 per cent) as anticipated by Irsa and Sindh, the higher availability in the later part of Rabi will naturally benefit Punjab where Rabi sowing starts late.