ISLAMABAD, May 17: The government is estimating a Rs1,000 billion (Rs1 trillion) federal budget for fiscal year 2004-05, up by around 23 per cent from current fiscal's budget estimate of Rs813 billion.

Finance Ministry sources told Dawn that this would include a public sector development programme (PSDP) of about Rs200 billion and non-development budget of around Rs800 billion.

The government had allocated Rs160 billion for development and Rs645 billion for current expenditure for the outgoing financial year 2003-04.

Overall fiscal deficit is projected at four per cent of GDP or slightly over Rs180 billion while gross federal receipts are estimated at Rs818 billion, up by around 13 per cent from current year's estimates of around Rs728 billion.

Of the Rs818 billion gross federal receipts, tax revenue is projected at around Rs571 billion, up by around 11.3 per cent from budget estimates of Rs513 billion for the current year.

Similarly, non-tax revenue is estimated at Rs175 billion for fiscal 2004-05 against budget estimates of Rs157 billion for the current year. Revenue from surcharges is estimated to increase to about Rs70 billion during the next fiscal year.

These sources said that Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) would meet on May 24 to approve the public sector development programme for the next year which would be followed the meeting of National Economic Council (NEC) in the last week of the current month. APCC is presided over by finance minister while NEC by prime minister. The government is planning to announce federal budget on June 5.

Pakistan's defence expenditure is also expected to increase "substantially" in real terms in fiscal year 2004-05 to meet pressing defence requirements particularly of Air Force and Navy.

This would be after a decade that the defence would get higher allocations which has been decreasing in real terms or remained frozen. Indian defence allocations have increased by at least 100 per cent during the same period.

A government official said that since total size of the GDP was going up, the defence allocations would go up significantly even if it is kept at four per cent of GDP. He, however, indicated that increase could be both in real and as percentage of GDP.

Budget estimates for 2003-04 had projected defence spendings at Rs160 billion or 3.6 per cent of GDP but is now expected to touch four per cent of GDP by end of current fiscal year, the official said.