TOKYO: They've played catch at Camp David, dined on beef and pecan pie at Bush's Texas ranch and share a love of the classic Western movie "High Noon".
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is not only chummy with US President George W. Bush, but also - in common with Britain's Tony Blair - has linked his security policies to the US leader, supporting the war in Iraq and sending troops there despite opposition from domestic voters.
Not surprisingly, then, Koizumi's critics say a defeat for Bush in November's presidential election at the hands of a Democratic challenger such as front-runner John Kerry - who has harshly attacked Bush on security matters - could spell trouble for the Japanese leader.
"I think it would be quite difficult for Koizumi (if Bush lost)," former ruling party executive Koichi Kato, who opposed Japan's dispatch of troops to Iraq, said in a recent interview. "I don't know if he could handle it or not."
Bush fares badly with Japanese voters. A recent poll by the magazine Aera showed that 57 per cent would prefer to see him defeated while only seven per cent want him to stay.
Diplomatic experts, however, say the Democrats' preference for building consensus with allies could be a plus for Koizumi, while fears of their traditional protectionist tinge are probably overdone.
"Democrats are somewhat more multilateral, more inclined to go to the United Nations. That means, for Koizumi, who wants Japanese support for the Self-Defence Forces deployment, UN legitimacy is more likely to be present," said Joseph Nye, dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School.
"I don't think the substance of security policy will change much, but the procedures the Democrats would use would make things slightly easier for Japan," Nye, a former assistant defence secretary, said in a recent telephone interview.
SOTTO VOCE ADVICE: Koizumi is sending up to 1,000 members of the Self-Defence Forces, as its military is known, to help rebuild Iraq.
Domestic critics of the risky mission say it violates Japan's pacifist constitution, while some Japanese resent what they see as US pressure for support in Iraq in return for protection against the nuclear threat from neighbouring North Korea.
Tokyo has welcomed Bush's commitment to cementing the alliance after years of friction with and perceived slights by his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton. And friendly ties between the two leaders have made diplomats' jobs easier.
But personal chemistry aside, a Democratic president who paid more heed to allies' concerns might make Koizumi more comfortable. "Kerry's public criticism of Bush is the same sort of thing Koizumi has been telling Bush privately," said University of Tokyo professor Akihiko Tanaka.
Nor would a Democrat be likely to abandon Bush's policy of coaxing and prodding Japan into a bolder global security role. "Japan policy will stay roughly the same," said Nye, who in 2000 co-authored with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage a report that became the backbone of Bush's Japan policy.
"The big change...came in the Clinton administration, when we had the (1995) 'Nye Initiative' to get away from the view of Japan as a rising enemy and redefine the Japan security relationship as a basis for stability," Nye added.
How Japan would fare with a Democrat on the economic front is a matter of concern, but here, too, partisan differences may be less than meet the eye. -Reuters
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