LONDON, Feb 11: Unless the insurgents’ advance is halted, Afghanistan will become President Barack Obama’s Vietnam, fears Col John Nagl, a consultant.

A Daily Telegraph report (War against Taliban ‘will be lost by autumn’ unless strategy changes) datelined Washington and published on Wednesday quoted Col Nagl, an Iraq veteran who helped devise the strategy, as saying that gains made by the Taliban needed to be reversed by the end of the fighting season, around late September or early October, or else the Taliban would establish a durable base that would make a sustained Western military presence futile.

“Counter-insurgency campaigns have momentum, like a football game when the crowd senses something before it happens. Right now the Taliban has that momentum,” said Col Nagl.

In his campaign Mr Obama committed to sending extra resources to Afghanistan and was bullish about the chances of success. But at a press conference this week, he played down expectations of ushering in a Western-style democracy and instead set a goal of preventing the country from becoming a haven for terrorists.

The president’s spokesman on Tuesday announced that he had asked Bruce Riedel, a former CIA agent and academic, to head an inter-agency review that would include civilian and military affairs in Afghanistan and the region, indicating that the so-called ‘surge’ might not be ordered by the president.

The leaking of Col Nagl’s assessment report to the media at this juncture is regarded by some diplomatic circles here as a desperate attempt by the supporters of the ‘surge’ idea in Pentagon to force President Obama’s hand.

The Telegraph report cleverly juxtaposed Col Nagl’s assessment with a statement by Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in which he had said that he expected to announce the deployment of a further 30,000 US troops soon, even though President Obama’s administration was waiting to evaluate the reviews.