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LONDON, July 8: Gordon Brown’s Labour Party launched its campaign on Tuesday to retain an inner city Scottish parliamentary seat in an election that could be pivotal for the British prime minister’s future.
Margaret Curran, selected as Labour candidate on Monday, began canvassing for votes in Glasgow East, a Labour stronghold that the party risks losing because of voters’ dissatisfaction with the government and Brown.
Defeat in Glasgow East, after a thrashing in two other parliamentary seats and big losses in May’s local council elections in England and Wales, could be the last straw for some in the party.
“Given Gordon’s political position we are looking for a catalyst. The Labour Party and members of the cabinet would need to panic and say ‘we need to get rid of him’. If they lose Glasgow East, that might happen,” said John Curtice, political analyst at Strathclyde University in Scotland.
The Glasgow East election, caused by the resignation of its member of parliament on health grounds, takes place on July 24.
Labour’s campaign to retain the seat, which it won with a majority of 13,507 over the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) in 2005, got off to a troubled start when its chosen candidate withdrew for family reasons.
That left the party scouting around for someone brave enough to risk their political future in a seat where unemployment is high and anger with the 11-year-old government is widespread.
POCKETS OF POVERTY: Labour’s opponents say Brown should be ashamed of his party’s record in Glasgow East — an area with pockets of poverty where life expectancy is lower than in the Gaza Strip and North Korea and where many live off state benefits.
However, Ian Davidson, Labour member of parliament for Glasgow South West with a majority of 13,896, said defeat would not be the end of Brown, particularly as the party’s opponents in Scotland are not the Conservatives, but the SNP.
Voters “know that if they vote nationalist, they’ll still have a Labour government in the morning, so they can quite easily indulge themselves”, Davidson said.
“It ain’t over till it’s over,” he added. “It wouldn’t mean we’ve lost the general election or Gordon Brown was doomed.”
Opinion polls put the opposition Conservative Party on track to win a landslide at the next general election, due by 2010.
An economic slowdown, anxiety over a potential housing market crash and opinion polls suggesting Brown is perceived as weak and indecisive have all contributed to Labour’s troubles.
Davidson agreed, however, that defeat in Glasgow East would give ammunition to those in Labour who believe they stand a better chance of winning the next election without Brown at the helm.
One Labour member of parliament said defeat could draw out a “stalking horse” candidate to stand against Brown at the party’s conference in September, to make way for a stronger challenger.
Losing Glasgow East would be particularly embarrassing for Brown because he is Scottish. Scotland was once Labour’s fiefdom but the SNP became the largest parliamentary force in May 2007, ending 50 years of political dominance by Labour.
Labour is still reeling after losing a parliamentary seat in the northern town of Crewe in May to the Conservatives. Crewe, like Glasgow, was deemed safe Labour territory.—Reuters
