WASHINGTON, Aug 20: A joint survey by the Foreign Policy magazine and the Centre for American Progress shows that 35 per cent US foreign policy experts believe Pakistan is most likely to become the next Al Qaeda stronghold while 22 per cent say Pakistan is an ally that least serves America’s national security interests.

A majority of the 108 experts – interviewed between May 23 and June 26 -- fear another September 11-scale attack in the US within the next decade.

As many as 74 per cent experts believe that Pakistan is most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years.

While there is a wide consensus among the experts like former secretary of state Madeleine Albright about the dangers that Pakistan poses, there is very little agreement on what to do about it.

Only a few, less than one in three, favour threatening Pakistan with sanctions. Yet about the same number supports increasing US aid to the country.

Such a muddled response underscores the puzzle that Pakistan presents to American policymakers. What is clear is that the experts do not favour more of the same: More than half of those surveyed believe the current US policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on US national security. Getting the strategy right could be critical if the world is to keep those dark clouds from forming.

In a chapter titled, “A Perfect Nightmare,” the respondents name Pakistan as the country where a “perfect terrorist storm” may be brewing.

When asked to choose the nation that is most likely to become the next Al Qaeda stronghold, more experts chose Pakistan than any other country, including Iraq.

Commenting on the response, the surveyors note that Osama bin Laden reportedly remains at large along Pakistan’s mountainous border with Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda is also regrouping; the country’s intelligence service is said to be still cooperating with radical elements; and President Pervez Musharraf’s political future seems increasingly imperilled.

“These developments would not be as worrisome had the experts not also said that Pakistan is the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years. Together, it’s a terrifying combination,” the report warns.

Chastened by the fighting in Iraq, the US national security community also appears eager not to make the same mistakes elsewhere. For instance, though a majority – 83 per cent – do not believe Iran’s nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, just 8 per cent favour military strikes in response. Eight in 10, on the other hand, say the United States should use either sanctions or diplomatic talks to negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.