Big banks rebound

China’s five largest state-owned banks reported third-quarter profit growth of between 6pc and 11pc. Each posted its fastest quarterly growth since 2021 or 2022, despite a slowing economy. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest lender by assets, said net profit rose 10pc. Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications reported similar gains. Bank of China, which has the most overseas exposure of the five, lagged at 6.4pc amid trade tensions and currency swings. The gains came partly from repricing costlier deposits. Analysts said recent monetary easing and mortgage subsidies are helping keep funding costs down. Analysts warned of emerging risks in loans to technology firms, which Beijing has urged banks to support. Bond gains remained a key profit driver. The banks are also buying into chip-sector listings, which lifted quarterly gains.

Adapted from ‘China’s big banks post fastest quarterly profit growth in years as margins stabilise’, by Ziyi Tang and Selena Li, published on October 30, 2026 by Reuters

Mayfair markdowns

Eight out of 10 homes in London’s most exclusive neighbourhoods, such as Mayfair, Belgravia and Knightsbridge, now sell below asking price, according to research by private bank Coutts. Prices in prime central London fell 5pc in the third quarter of 2026, with homes selling at an average 10pc discount to their asking price. That leaves some wealthy owners facing losses of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of pounds. The top end of the market is now 14pc below its 2014 peak, after Brexit, the pandemic, higher property taxes and rising borrowing costs. Agents also report waning interest from foreign-born buyers since the non-dom tax regime was abolished. Knightsbridge and Belgravia have been hit hardest. Sellers are holding back, with new listings down 14pc on the previous quarter. Transactions fell 9.1pc, and by 22.3pc in the £2m to £5m band. The very top of the market is still busy, though.

Adapted from ‘Eight in 10 homes in London’s poshest postcodes now sell below asking price, Coutts finds’, by Lauren Almeida, published on October 31, 2026 by The Guardian

Blame it on the bots?

Two recent studies suggested AI is reshaping work. US analyst Eric Basmajian showed that labour productivity in the sectors using AI most has jumped above its pre-2023 trend, while a Goldman Sachs note suggests that sectors with higher AI use are losing jobs faster. The link is weaker than it looks: swap in a richer employment dataset and the Goldman finding disappears. Outside the US, in the UK, Canada, Australia and Europe, the productivity surge largely vanishes. Where the pattern does appear, it is mostly confined to tech, and it begins in 2022, when AI meant chatbots rather than agents. At Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Spotify, revenue kept climbing after 2022 while headcount stalled or fell. Banks and consultancies show little of that split. The more likely culprit is the rate hikes, inflation and uncertainty that began in 2022. They pushed companies to stop hiring, and Big Tech went further with large lay-offs well before AI was ready for production. Still, as more businesses become digital services companies whose output scales easily, more of them may bet on smaller workforces.

Adapted from ‘Is this the first clear evidence of AI’s impact on the labour market?’, by John Burn-Murdoch, published on October 31, 2026 by the Financial Times

Hawks circle

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75-4pc on October 28, but the decision was not unanimous. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point hike, and the pause may add urgency to raise rates in December, CNN reports.

Hugging hard

The US Justice Department has asked how Nvidia’s proposed $12.93 billion purchase of open-source AI platform Hugging Face could affect competition. The inquiry is part of a wider, years-long antitrust investigation into the chipmaker’s business practices, Reuters reports.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 2nd, 2026