ISLAMABAD: A high-level technocratic panel has warned that selective delays and the protection of favoured sectors in the National Tariff Policy (NTP) risk eroding productivity and trapping the economy in inefficiency, even as the government publicises gains from its tariff reforms.
The tariff experts on Friday discussed and reviewed the government’s NTP and its expected impact on the economy. The discussion, titled “Pakistan’s Tariff Reform and the Road to 2030”, was organised by the Revenue Mobilisation, Investment and Trade Programme.
The discussion noted that tariff reforms promise stronger competition and export gains if implemented, but delays or selective application risk eroding productivity. Take the auto sector as a case in point: despite repeated calls for tariff rationalisation, duties on imported components remain high and policy drafts have not been shared across ministries.
Warn selective tariff protection erodes productivity
This not only shields local assemblers from global competition but also undermines the very coherence of tariff reform, illustrating how selective non-implementation can blunt the broader gains projected under the NTP.
Member Customs Operations Shakeel Shah said Pakistan’s growth model has remained revenue-centric and protection-oriented for decades. “Moving towards productivity, competition and exports will inevitably create winners and losers, and any policy will have far-reaching effects on investment, industry and jobs,” he remarked.
Mr Shah suggested that tariff reforms must be complemented by governance reforms to make industry competitive. “When growth begins, pressure builds on the import side because the export push is missing,” he said, adding that within two to three years Pakistan is forced back into another stabilisation programme.
“The question is how to break this cycle,” he remarked.
Independent expert and lead member of the NTP, Dr Robina Athar, said that over the past two to three decades, economies that embraced trade liberalisation and export-led growth have generally performed better than those relying on import substitution.
She noted that Pakistan’s experience suggests high protective tariffs have failed to deliver the desired outcomes, underscoring the need to shift towards a more competitive, export-oriented growth model.
Trade expert Dr Vaqar Ahmed emphasised the importance of consistent implementation, saying tariff reform can deliver its intended benefits only if applied uniformly, without favouring particular sectors or creating exceptions under pressure from vested interests.
Dr Ahmed added that a tariff policy must be allowed to run its course rather than being undermined by conflicting industrial or sectoral measures.
Wajid Bukhari of the Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers said the NTP had a positive impact on the industry during its first two years, while cautioning that its benefits and implications would continue to evolve.
“The impact of the NTP on the industry has been positive during the first two years, but will turn neutral in the third year,” he noted. However, safeguards that exist only on paper provide little reassurance to domestic manufacturers, underscoring the need for effective protections and a predictable policy environment.
Zain Mustafa of Rubatech Manufacturing stressed the need for policy predictability, saying export growth requires an enabling environment where exports are commercially viable. He warned that frequent policy shifts create uncertainty for manufacturers and investors, while industries need time to adapt and build capacity.
Published in Dawn, October 10th, 2026
