A roughly two-hour drive east from Peshawar brings us to Attock, on the banks of the Indus.

On the Punjab side, the inescapable Att­o­ck fortress, an imposing 16th century structure, dominates the relative lowlands of Khairabad in Khyber Pakh­tun­khwa’s Nows­hera district — the venue of PTI’s renewed campaign to secure the release of their jailed leader, or at the very least seek some relief for him.

Connecting the two provinces via the N-5 — or Grand Trunk Road of yore — is the 701-metre new bridge at Khairabad, which sits not too far from its 119-year-old two-tiered steel truss road bridge that is now abandoned.

It is here that the PTI wants to converge its protest march, which began in Gandi Chowk, Lakki Marwat on October 4. Here, things are bound to get interesting.

Consider the route of the march first; the participants will reach the southern fringes of Peshawar’s Mattani by Tuesday night and stay overnight before resuming their march via the Ring Road. From there, they plan to take the M-1 motorway and continue all the way to Swabi — the last district adjoining Punjab.

In leading the protest march, Sohail Afridi has taken perhaps the biggest risk of his political career. When it comes time to pay the piper, he may yet find himself standing alone at Khairabad

Here, the marchers plan to exit the motorway and continue towards Khairabad via the Swabi-Jehangira Road. At least, that’s the plan so far.

But no one has been able to explain why the organisers plan to take such a circuitous route, switching from the motorway to GT Road, when all they would have to do is cross the M1 bridge over the Indus and enter Punjab?

What could possibly be the strategic reason for this switch? There are many theories and speculation abounds, but no one, not even some key party figures, have a definitive answer. That is unless, of course, they want to keep their cards close to their chest.

Crossing the Rubicon

At least two senior figures in Islamabad have told Dawn that in principle, the decision to proclaim a state of emergency in KP has been taken. However, whether it comes to pass or not depends entirely on whether the PTI march attempts to force its way into Islamabad.

All those who ‘need to know’ have been conveyed the consequences of forced entry into Islamabad, and its fallout, in no uncertain terms.

Could this, and the Islamabad High Court ruling, be the reason for the diversion from M-1 to GT Road?

Speak to any party figure and they would tell you that they do not plan to put up any resistance or resort to violence to push their way through walls of steel containers. No slingshots, no nailed sticks, let alone any firearms.

“We will be at our peaceful best,” commented one lawmaker.

This is mainly why the planners have decided to take this long detour — exit at the Swabi Interchange on M-1 to bypass Nowshera cantonment, which lies astride the GT Road — to avoid any direct contact.

So what is the endgame for the PTI protest march? Will it funnel through the lines of containers on Khairabad Bridge to confront and clash with riot police waiting on the other side of the Indus?

Or, will the participants camp in the plains of Khairabad on the KP side, and continue their protest in a peaceful manner? If so, then how long will they be able to keep it up? Will it even be logistically possible for them to sustain a sit-in, notwithstanding the implication of economic fallout for the people of KP, much of whose fuel and food comes via the GT Road?

No one seems to have an explanation, unless of course, this is a deliberate deflection tactic.

In the words of a senior party lawmaker, ‘war-gaming’ is not in the PTI’s DNA, but there is still some hope within the senior political leadership that despite the deadlock and the breakdown of negotiations in Islamabad, things can still be sorted out through dialogue.

Hence the long detour, to drag things out and delay ‘D-Day’ for as long as possible.

The possible political fallout

In the absence of a charismatic leader to mobilise and lead the march, Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has clearly emerged as the party’s new poster boy.

But at 37 years of age, with little political experience and surrounded by a council of so-called ‘wise men’ with no real political authority — including the party’s political committee — the firebrand former student leader also runs grave risks to his political career.

Losing his office through a possible disqualification case before the Election Commission of Pakistan, currently stayed by the Peshawar High Court, or through a pending petition filed by Sher Afzal Marwat before Federal Constitutional Court, are the two likely scenarios.

But even some senior party figures privately concede that by taking responsibility for leading the march, Sohail Afridi has taken perhaps the biggest risk of his political career.

If he is able to pull it off, i.e. bring the federal government to its knees and extract major concessions for his jailed party leader, he would emerge as the undisputed leader of the PTI.

But while success will have many fathers, failure is an orphan; failing to achieve any of the stated goals of this march will have its implications. And when it comes time to pay the piper, Afridi may yet find himself standing alone at Khairabad.

Published in Dawn, October 7th, 2026