GSP+ concerns

Editorial Published September 9, 2026

PAKISTAN’S preferential trade access to the European Union could be at risk. Brussels has cautioned that Islamabad can no longer assume continued trade concessions from the bloc. The warning comes at a critical moment in trade ties between the two. The current GSP+ scheme expires at the end of this year, with Pakistan seeking to enter into a successor arrangement — that has tougher conditions. The EU ambassador’s view that the outcome is “not certain” highlights a problem that extends beyond immediate negotiations. To preserve preferential access to its largest export market, Islamabad must prove it can meet the commitments it made under the programme. As the ambassador put it, “GSP+ preferences cannot be taken for granted”. Such unusually blunt language from a diplomat is significant, particularly for a trade arrangement worth more than €7bn a year to Pakistani exporters.

The GSP+ issue is also a test of whether Pakistan is prepared to honour its international commitments. The economy has benefited enormously from preferential access to the European market since 2014. That dependence makes Brussels’ latest warning especially serious. The European Commission’s 2023-25 assessment has found regression in several areas. It noted that improvements in legislation had not translated sufficiently into implementation. Its concerns included enforced disappearances, curbs on free expression, weak judicial independence and forced labour. Islamabad’s contention that the assessment lacks balance does not address these concerns. The successor scheme raises the bar, expanding coverage from 27 to 32 conventions. Pakistan has ratified the five additional conventions. But that is only a formal requirement. Brussels is now looking more closely at whether Islamabad is implementing them and wants evidence. Disputing Brussels’ findings cannot compensate for shortcomings in implementation when the successor framework explicitly places greater weight on enforcement. Hence, Islamabad faces the tough challenge of securing entry into the new framework. To do so, it must ensure that the deficiencies identified in the assessment do not put the EU’s existing preferences at risk during the transition. Treating the matter as diplomatic disagreement would be short-sighted. The issue is one of credibility, and Islamabad must show, through concrete actions, that its international commitments are more than promises on paper.

Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2026

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Imran Khan’s continued incarceration could materially weaken Pakistan’s case for admission to the successor GSP+ regime because the new framework examines actual compliance with human-rights conventions, particularly the ICCPR, not merely their ratification. The relevant issues include arbitrary detention, politically motivated prosecution, denial of a fair trial, judicial independence and suppression of political participation. This is especially significant because the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has already concluded that Khan’s detention was arbitrary and called for his immediate release. A later UN communication also raised concerns about prolonged solitary confinement and detention conditions. These findings give Brussels an authoritative basis for treating his case as evidence of systemic non-compliance rather than merely an internal political dispute. However, GSP+ is assessed across Pakistan’s entire governance and human-rights record. Khan’s release is therefore unlikely to be formally stated as a single precondition, and his incarceration alone may not trigger withdrawal. The EU will also consider enforced disappearances, military trials of civilians, media restrictions, labor rights, minority protections and judicial independence. The practical calculation is more political than legal: Pakistan’s €7bn-plus export dependence gives the EU considerable leverage. European importers also benefit from Pakistani textiles, making outright suspension economically disruptive. Brussels may therefore use uncertainty over renewal to demand measurable reforms, credible judicial process and political de-escalation. Khan’s release, bail, sentence suspension or genuinely transparent retrial could become an unstated but highly consequential confidence-building measure. In short, GSP+ will not mechanically free Imran Khan. But it may create one of the strongest external economic pressures on Pakistan’s power structure to reconsider his continued detention. If Islamabad loses or jeopardizes preferential access while ignoring a UN finding of arbitrary detention, the economic cost of political repression will no longer be borne only by the state, it will be borne by exporters, workers and the wider economy.

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