Oil surge, political uncertainty drag PSX lower

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KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure in the outgoing week as rising crude oil prices amid uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict and domestic political noise weighed on investor sentiment.

Political uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s order to transfer former prime minister Imran Khan to Shifa International Hospital for treatment, coupled with the government’s reluctance, kept equity investors jittery.

The index shed 2,938 points, or 1.6 per cent, at 177,167 from the previous week’s close of 180,105 points. Market capita-lisation also declined to $71.6 billion from $72.5bn.

According to Topline Securities Ltd, the continued rise in crude oil prices amid the stalemate in US-Iran peace talks remained the principal drag on the market.

Brent crude futures rose for a second consecutive week, gaining more than 6pc to $94.2 per barrel, said AKD Securities Ltd.

According to Arif Habib Ltd (AHL), among major economic developments, the government raised Rs517.9bn through treasury bills, exceeding the Rs500bn target. Cut-off yields increased across all tenors, ranging between 11.47pc and 11.99pc, with Rs349.5bn raised through the three-month tenor.

The country’s current account deficit narrowed sharply to $328 million in July, down 38pc from $529m in the same month last year and 59.7pc from $814m in June.

Net foreign direct investment stood at $179m in July, up from $49m in June, representing a 265pc month-on-month increase, though it was 20pc lower year-on-year.

Large-scale manufacturing output fell 3.5pc year-on-year in June and 6.1pc month-on-month. However, output for the entire FY26 increased by 5pc.

Technology exports rose 18pc year-on-year to $417m in July, accounting for 45pc of total services exports. Auto financing increased 35.2pc to Rs386bn, compared with Rs286bn a year earlier.

Power generation increased 7pc year-on-year to 15,122 gigawatt-hours in July, the second-highest generation recorded for the month, supported by record hydel, local coal and imported coal-based generation.

The rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03pc week-on-week to close at Rs277.56 against the US dollar.

On the energy front, oil production declined 0.5pc week-on-week to 67,800 barrels per day, mainly because of lower flows from Nashpa, while gas production rose 1.9pc to 2,995m cubic feet per day following the revival of Uch gas production.

Sector-wise, banks made the largest negative contribution to the index, followed by fertiliser, cement, investment banks and power. Their contributions were negative 1,773, 449, 410, 243 and 236 points, respectively.

Exploration and production firms, oil marketing companies, refineries, leather and tanneries, and engineering were the leading positive contributors, adding 372, 222, 151, 86 and 29 points to the index, respectively.

At the individual scrip level, UBL was the biggest drag, followed by Habib Bank, Fauji Fertiliser, Hub Power and Engro Holdings. Positive contributions came from Pakistan Petroleum, PSO, OGDC, Attock Refinery and Service Industries.

AKD Securities noted that refinery, OMC and E&P stocks gained 8.7pc, 3.1pc and 1.8pc week-on-week, respectively. Banks, power and textile composite stocks fell 3.3pc, 2.8pc and 2.5pc, respectively.

Foreign corporate investors, banks and mutual funds were among the major sellers, while individuals emerged as the largest buyers. Topline Securities said individuals, insurance companies and local firms made net purchases of $18m, $4.6m and $3.5m, respectively. Mutual funds, banks and foreign corporates recorded net sales of $18m, $6.8m and $4.9m, respectively.

Other notable developments included efforts to secure Qatar LNG cargoes amid higher spot prices, a reported Rs364bn increase in circular debt during FY26, and moves to convert Pakistan-China business-to-business memorandums into investments and exports.

Analysts expect the market to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, while corporate earnings could provide support. AKD said easing geopolitical tensions and strengthening economic indicators could improve sentiment, with a potential US-Iran agreement also capable of bringing international oil prices closer to pre-conflict levels.

The KSE-100 is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about seven times, while AHL puts its current price-to-earnings at 8.1 times and dividend yield at 6.3pc.

Published in Dawn, August 23rd, 2026

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