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BY the end of this month, could Donald Trump have the pleasure of adding to the tally of wars he claims to have halted? Let’s hope so. Never mind that it’s a conflict he initiated in connivance with Israel. The unprovoked belligerence won’t be forgotten and cannot be forgiven, but an end to the hostilities would obviously be welcome.
It is not yet imminent, though. After Tehran responded to the US president’s weekend threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t opened to all shipping within 48 hours, by declaring it would then irreversibly damage similar facilities across neighbouring states and mine the Gulf, Trump appeared to back down. Iranian missiles wreaking havoc in Arad and Dimona, the site of Israel’s main nuclear facilities, no doubt played a part. The US president offered a five-day reprieve, purportedly because of “very good and productive” US discussions with Iran towards a “complete and total resolution of hostilities”.
Tehran has denied all knowledge of direct negotiations. The fog of war makes it even harder than usual to distinguish between half-truths and outright lies. Both tend to be scattered across mainstream media in the West; even Al Jazeera is a less reliable source of information in a conflict that involves Qatar. The Saudis and Emiratis have toyed with the idea of joining Israel and the US in this war.
One can understand the angst of Gulf states over being targeted despite declaring they would not permit their territories to be used for attacking Iran. But surely they must also realise why the vast American military bases they happily host make them an obvious target for a nation under assault by the US. Hopefully, cooler heads in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi grasp the likelihood of even more damaging Iranian attacks in the event of an open declaration of war.
Is Trump really looking for an off-ramp?
Oman has been the first among its neighbours to officially acknowledge that “Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making”, as its foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, tweeted on Monday. He was intimately involved in the US-Iranian negotiations that were rudely interrupted by the outbreak of hostilities. Oman, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye have been communicating with both sides with a view to facilitating a ceasefire.
Pakistan relies on Gulf countries for 81 per cent of its energy needs, the highest proportion in the world. But that’s not the only reason for its unease. Its dilemma would be compounded were Riyadh to join the war and invoke its defence arrangement with Islamabad. We obviously don’t know what was said in Sunday’s phone call between Trump and the military leadership, and when Shehbaz Sharif called Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian later, it presumably wasn’t just to offer condolences and exchange Eid and Nowruz greetings.
Pakistan’s conciliatory diplomacy deserves appreciation — but why can’t a similar attitude be brought to bear vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Balochistan? The latter province would be on the front line in the (hopefully unlikely) event of increased tensions with Iran.
What remains unclear, meanwhile, is whether Trump interprets some of his regional allies’ communications with Tehran as peace talks, or is there a secret track involving Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, or parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf? It’s equally possible that he’s just making it up as he goes along, as is his wont. Iranian leaders say they suspect it’s the latter, intended to shore up the stock markets and shrink the price of oil — and even grab Kharg Island.
One must also acknowledge that the Iranian leadership, for all its pre-planning, must be in disarray amid a series of assassinations, and the biggest loss is deemed to be that of Ali Larijani, who might have served as the ideal interlocutor once Israel and the US realised regime change isn’t imminent.
One can only wonder, meanwhile, why Mojtaba Khamenei was picked to succeed his father as Supreme Leader if he was indeed seriously wounded in the attack that killed much of his family. It has been reported that he is under treatment in Moscow. Surely, there were alternative candidates. Perhaps Trump’s specific denunciation of Mojtaba was enough to elevate him. Or else the Revolutionary Guard wished to exercise its writ without subservience to an outsider.
If and when it comes to a ceasefire, Iran might resile from its demand for dismantling all US bases in the Gulf (even though that’s a worthy idea), but hopefully it will not budge from its insistence on international guarantees against any repeat of unhinged military attacks. Ideally, any peace deal should also involve Israel’s exit from Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza. It may seem like too much to ask for, but a half-hearted ceasefire will only leave open the likelihood of an even deadlier action replay.
Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2026
