AT a time when the world is in disarray, there’s one voice which hasn’t lost faith in a rules-based order, globalisation and interdependence. It is the voice of the People’s Republic of China, whose president floated the concept of building “a community with shared future for mankind”. This concept seeks to build an orderly multipolar world predicated on openness, inclusivity and mutual benefit. To this end, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, which has connected it with over 150 countries through investment in ports, roads, railway, energy grids, trade and finance. While BRI partner countries use Chinese investments to achieve economic growth, China benefits by securing markets for its goods and business opportunities for its firms, plus it expands its global footprint.

Complementing the BRI are three global initiatives that China has proposed since 2021. The first is the Global Development Initiative that seeks to make development people-centred, innovation-driven and result-oriented. Under the GDI, China has invested and mobilised billions of dollars for international projects. In 2022, China proposed the Global Security Initiative to uphold the UN Charter and address security risks through dialogue, partnerships and respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Through the GSI, China facilitated rapprochement amongst Palestinian factions and between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It signed 90 documents with other countries and global organisations. Then came the Global Civilisation Initiative, calling for mutual respect for the diversity of civilisations, common values of humanity and close people-to-people exchanges. Pursuant to this, China has launched multiple multilateral and bilateral cooperation frameworks, advocating the principles of equality, dialogue and inclusiveness among civilisations.

China’s global outreach contrasts sharply with America’s fading global footprint. Under its latest National Security Strategy released last December, the US is shifting its global priorities to the Western Hemisphere, while engaging on other global issues more selectively. It expects its European and other allies to increase their defence spending. The NSS envisions America’s reindustrialisation, technological supremacy, trade rebalancing and migration management, all under the ambit of ‘America First’. While US administrations engaged in distant wars since 9/11, President Donald Trump’s recent decision to arrest the Venezuelan president and take over his country’s oil industry has shaken the very foundation of international law. America’s aggressive designs against Greenland and even Canada have isolated it from friends and foes alike.

In the economic domain, geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbated by Trump’s tariff and trade wars, are leading to a decline in the value of the US dollar and pushing major powers to look for alternatives to its global dominance. China is increasingly integrating the renminbi into international markets, aspiring to turn it into a global reserve currency. The EU is looking for a larger role for the euro in global finance. BRICS countries are debating a new reserve currency. Some investors are reducing exposure to the dollar and turning to gold. But all this will not lead to ‘de-dollarisation’ soon because the dollar still has a 57 per cent share in global foreign exchange reserves, far ahead of the euro’s 20pc and the renminbi’s 2pc. Also, Japan, the UK, China and many other countries hold billions of dollars in US treasury bonds.

China’s outreach contrasts with the fading US role.

If the US continues to reduce its global footprint, who will fill the ensuing power vacuum? While China has expanded its global outreach, there are no indications it is ready to challenge the US or fill the space the US leaves behind. For instance, the US action in Venezuela was a clear signal to China that it cannot expand its reach to the Western Hemisphere. Yet, China’s response did not go beyond diplomatic condemnation. Also, when the US took the lead in ending the Gaza war, China stood in diplomatic solidarity with the Palestinians, but did not play an active role. Nor did it step in to help Iran, when the latter confronted Israel-US aggression, though there have been unconfirmed reports of it now providing covert military support to Iran.

It appears that China will continue to focus on its peaceful rise and eschew military confrontation until it has achieved its centenary goal of rejuvenation of Chinese society. Meanwhile, the world will remain embroiled in further erosion of the rules-based order, which is intensifying major power competition, the breakdown of world economic order and the rise of hypernationalism. It’s a bumpy road ahead especially for the middle powers — and time to buckle up.

The writer is former foreign secretary of Pakistan and chairman Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, February 15th, 2026