KARACHI: Urea sales are expected to clock in at 218,000 tonnes in January, a 75-month low and down by 84 per cent month-on-month and 51pc year-on-year.

Topline Securities, in its report on Monday, noted that the sharp slowdown follows advance purchases in December 2025, driven by higher manufacturer discounts, which pushed December 2025 sales to an all-time high of 1.36 million tonnes.

Discounts offered by select manufacturers decreased in January, with Engro Fertilisers Ltd offering Rs100-150 per bag, down from Rs400 in December 2025, while Fauji Fertiliser Company did not offer any discounts in January after offering Rs150-200 per bag in December 2025.

The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 0.63m tonnes in January, up from 0.32m tonnes in December 2025. The inventory rise reflects normalisation after an exceptionally strong December 2025, as discounts were rolled back, seasonal Rabi demand tapered, and production remained steady, leading to an inventory build-up.

Company-wise, Fatima Group holds the highest inventory of 220,000 tonnes, followed by Engro Fertilisers of 264,000 tonnes, and Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) of 90,000 tonnes.

Among the companies, Engro Fertiliser is anticipated to record a massive 96pc month-on-month and 77pc year-on-year decrease in urea sales to 24,000 tonnes in January. While Fauji Fertiliser is expected to record urea sales of 175,000 tonnes, down 54pc month-on-month and 10pc year-on-year, followed by Fatima Fertiliser of 7,000 tonnes, down 97pc month-on-month and 93pc year-on-year, in January.

Total DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sales in January is likely to be at 34,000 tonnes, down 58pc month-on-month and 45pc year-on-year.

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2026