KARACHI: Instead of improving, the foreign investment climate has become more difficult for Pakistan, as seen in treasury bills where outflows surged by 54 per cent in November — a trend similar to that of foreign direct investment (FDI).

November proved to be the worst month for T-bill inflows and outflows so far in FY26. According to the State Bank’s latest data, foreign inflows in T-bills amounted to $77 million against outflows of $119m during the month.

Most of the outflows went back to Arab countries despite their assurances of investing in Pakistan. The trend is disappointing for a government striving to attract foreign investors across sectors and offering incentives through the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). Despite its creation to draw investment, the SIFC has yet to achieve meaningful results, and the Board of Investment has also been unable to secure major successes.

During November, the highest inflows came from the UK at $37m, followed by $20m from the UAE and $19m from Bahrain. However, the largest outflows — $51m and $41m — also went to the UAE and Bahrain, respectively, while the UK saw an outflow of $27m.

Govt raises Rs1.2tr amid over-liquid market

The inflow-outflow pattern shows that only a few countries are investing small amounts in high-yielding (around 11pc) T-bills. Despite attractive returns, the broader investment environment appears unappealing. Ongoing terrorism in two provinces and tensions with India and Afghanistan have further undermined investor confidence.

This is reflected in the shrinking FDI, which fell by 26pc in the first four months of the current fiscal year — already the lowest level in the region.

In the first five months of FY26, T-bill inflows were still higher than outflows at $410m compared to $333m during the same period.

Analysts and currency watchers remain pessimistic about any substantial improvement in foreign investment in the second half of the fiscal year.

The government, however, hopes to generate dollars through the sale of PIA and other assets, although major bidders are expected to be Pakistani investors with strong industrial presence. Despite the government signing MoUs with countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, observers do not see significant foreign investment materialising anytime soon.

Treasury bills, bonds

The government raised a total of Rs1.2 trillion through the auction of Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) on Wednesday.

According to the State Bank, the government raised Rs884.7bn through direct auction of T-bills and Rs97bn through non-competitive bids, bringing the total to Rs981.7bn. An additional Rs190.7bn was raised via 10-year PIBs, taking the day’s total mobilisation to Rs1.2tr.

The market appears over-liquid, with T-bill bids reaching Rs1,925bn and PIB bids Rs523bn — a combined Rs2.448tr. This also indicates low private-sector borrowing and sluggish economic activity, mirroring the past three years.

Published in Dawn, December 11th, 2025