FOR decades, policymakers have sustained the narrative that Pakistan is a predominantly rural country, with only 39pc of its population classified as urban. However, a new World Bank study upends this long-held belief. The study reveals a strikingly different reality: nearly 88pc of the population actually lives in areas with urban characteristics. Of this, 46pc people reside in high-density cities, while 42pc live in moderately dense urban centres. This finding indicates that secondary cities and peri-urban areas, rather than the megacities, have been the real engines of urban expansion. Yet they remain systematically overlooked in official classifications and policy frameworks. The discrepancy is far more than a statistical quirk; it exposes a deep-rooted planning and governance failure, marked by distorted policymaking, misallocated resources, and a fundamental misunderstanding of where and how most Pakistanis actually live. Since 1972, the task of defining what constitutes an ‘urban’ area in Pakistan has been left to provincial and municipal committees that operate without clear criteria. Factors such as population size, infrastructure development and access to public services are largely ignored. These committees are also under no formal obligation to take population density or settlement patterns into account when classifying an area as urban, nor are they required to periodically update or revise urban boundaries. This has rendered vast peri-urban settlements statistically invisible. Provincial variations underscore the absurdity. Officially, Islamabad’s urban population stands at just 47pc against the actual 90pc. In KP, the actual urban share is nearly thrice the officially reported 15pc. Such discrepancies expose a systemic flaw in how Pakistan classifies its urban and rural populations.
The misclassification of urban areas as non-urban has serious consequences. On the one hand, the government loses significant property tax revenue; on the other, residents of these areas are excluded from urban development planning and deprived of essential public services. The misclassification is deliberate. Underreporting urbanisation helps sustain the illusion of a predominantly rural Pakistan, keeping millions outside the urban tax net. The result is a governance vacuum: millions live in urban conditions without receiving urban-level services or policy attention.
The World Bank’s findings should be a wake-up call for policymakers to update the country’s outdated urban definitions and integrate functional, data-driven methods into planning. Recognising peri-urban areas as legitimate urban spaces would not only promote fiscal fairness but also unlock economic potential. Managed well, urbanisation is a powerful engine of growth; neglected, it becomes a trap of congestion, deprivation, and fragmentation. Pakistan is not a rural country inching towards modernity; it is an urban nation in denial. And the cost of that denial will be measured in wasted resources, missed opportunities and human suffering.
Published in Dawn, November 6th, 2025
