LAHORE: Pakistan’s cotton output for 2025-26 is projected to fall by 10 to 15 per cent compared to last year, despite early signs of recovery, according to data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Monday.

By Oct 31, a total of 4.437 million bales had reached ginning factories nationwide — only 3pc higher than the same period last year. The modest rise follows a strong start, with production 49pc higher year-on-year by Sept 30, with gains of 56pc in Punjab and 45pc in Sindh. However, between Oct 16 and 31, arrivals plunged 46pc from last year’s corresponding period.

Ihsanul Haq, chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, said the sharp slowdown suggested total output may end up well below last season’s level. “Textile mills may have to import more cotton to meet export orders,” he warned.

During the period under review, textile mills purchased 3.59m bales, while exporters bought 153,000 bales. Around 694,000 bales remain unsold. Punjab’s ginning units received 1.909m bales, up four per cent, and Sindh’s factories 2.528m bales, up three per cent year-on-year.

Late-season slump and data gaps cast a shadow over revival hopes

Mr Haq attributed the early surge to high temperatures and early sowing in Punjab, which brought picking forward by nearly a month. But the sudden late-October decline has dampened optimism.

Naseem Usman of the Cotton Brokers Associa­tion expressed concern over rising import dependency, noting that mills may turn to costly US cotton as Brazilian supplies face honeydew contamination and Afghan imports remain uncertain due to border instability.

Mr Haq criticised weak enforcement of crop zoning laws, arguing that without restricting sugarcane in cotton zones, government-funded revival projects “cannot succeed”.

He also lamented the closure of HVI testing laboratories under the Clean Cotton Project, saying the Rahim Yar Khan lab has been inactive for years, while the Bahawalpur facility was recently relocated, depriving local ginners of essential testing services.

Discrepancies between PCGA and Crop Reporting Service (CRS) Punjab figures have further unsettled the sector. While PCGA reports 1.909m bales for Punjab by Oct 31, CRS estimates 3.5m bales, a gap that analysts warn could distort policy and market planning.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2025