PAKISTAN faces a critical challenge at the intersection of climate change and population growth. As the population continues to rise, especially in low- and middle-income families, so does the demand for water, energy, food, land and other natural resources. Meanwhile, climate change is altering the very availability and predictability of these resources, creating feedback loops that intensify social inequality, ecological degradation and political instability.

Despite this, population policies are often excluded or downplayed in climate change discourse, and vice versa. A more integrated policy framework that includes social, economic andpoliticaldimensions is urgently needed to manage population growth in ways that align with climate res­ilience and sustainable development goals.

Pakistan’s rural population continues to grow rapidly, exerting immense pressure on the country’s limited resources, infrastructure and public services. With a national fertility rate of 3.6 births per woman (higher in rural areas), this demographic trend poses a long-term challenge to climate resilience, poverty reduction, and human development.

Pakistan’s population exceeds 240 million and continues to grow at two per cent annually, the highest in South Asia. Nearly 63pc of Pakistanis live in rural areas, where access to family planning, education and healthcare remains limited. In many rural communities, large families are seen as economic assets or religious obligations, while discussing contraception is considered taboo. As Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, more people mean more stress on water, land, agriculture and energy.

More people mean more stress on water, land and energy.

The core intersection between population growth and climate change increases absolute demand for natural resources. In regions with high fertility and low resource availability, this growth can exacerbate poverty and environmental degradation. Climate change further disrupts the supply of essential resources, for example, water stress from shifting rainfall patterns or declining agricultural productivity due to heatwaves, creating a growing mismatch between demand and supply.

This disproportionate impact makes it necessary to address population growth by viewing it through the lens of climate justice and equity for a fair future.

Population dynamics are not just biological or statistical issues, they are deeply embedded in social norms, economic opportunities and political priorities. They require targeted messaging that goes beyond correlation to make the difference where it matters.

Socially, this means emphasising the importance of girl child education, destigmatising family planning and making it a central part of gender equity and climate resilience. Similarly, the cultural narrative must be built on sensitivity and inclusivity. Economically, we must understand that large families — especially where child labour contributes to income and old-age security is uncertain — are seen as an asset. Climate-smart social safety nets, job creation, access to financial services and green economy transitions can shift this calculus by making families smaller and economically more viable.

At the political level, population stabilisation must be framed as a matter of national resilience, climate security and human development, rather than control. Governments must mainstream demographic trends into climate action plans and align governance ability and administrative capacity for effective outreach.

With growing fragility, it is important to integrate populati­­on dynamics into clim­ate change frameworks and promote inclusive rights-bas­­­ed messa­ging for de­­­-veloping communication str­ategies that build public un­­derstanding of the connection between family size, environmental sustainability and quality of life.

Climate change and population growth are not isolated challenges; they are mutually reinforcing issues that require integrated, bold and inclusive policy responses. While technological and infrastructural solutions to climate change are vital, addressing human behaviour, fertility choices and long-term demographic trends is equally critical. Through culturally sensitive and politically astute messaging, and with sustained investment in social and economic development, it is possible to achieve a sustainable balance between human needs and planetary boundaries.

And finally, managing population growth is not about controlling people, it’s about empowering them with choices, education and opportunity. With smart incentives, and community ownership, smaller families can become a pathway to prosperity, climate resilience and social dignity, not by force, but through informed decisions.

The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.

aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, October 13th, 2025