THE Pakistan-US relationship is an enig­­ma. Just when you think you’ve solved the puzzle, there’s an unexpected twist, like the present uptick in relations, the suddenness of which is as intriguing as its future is hazy.

What is familiar, and new, about the resurgence in ties? There are echoes here of the previous high-profile engagements, ie, they are being conducted at the highest levels with high-sounding rhetoric amid an air of great expectations. The White House and Pakistan’s military leadership are the guiding spirit, as they were in the past three peak engagements — the early Cold War period and the two Afghan wars.

The issues and context of relations, however, are both old and new. The arrest by Pakistan early this year of the mastermind of the Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in 2021 demonstrated Islamabad’s continued high value as a counterterrorism partner against transnational terrorist groups like IS-K, which threaten the US and global security. The bombing killed 182 people including 13 US soldiers. The security issue is important in domestic politics, and to President Donald Trump’s image as a strong leader.

The prospects of enhanced economic ties, especially in oil exploration, mines and minerals, IT and cryptocurrency and the exp­anded trade promised by the tariff deal form an entirely new area. But Trump’s repetition of his offer to mediate on Kashmir has little practical value as India won’t acce­­pt it. The offer has less to do with Kashmir and more to do with his desire to create public goodwill in Pakistan for himself and flaunt his image globally as a peacemaker.

Pakistan must remain alert to Trump’s future demands.

A succession of events has led to this quick-fire ignition of the relationship. Pak­is­­­tan’s investment potential had engaged Trump’s attention through Steve Witkoff, his foreign policy special envoy, whose son Zach Witkoff is a cofounder of World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed cryptocurrency. During a trip to Pakistan early this year he spoke of the country’s “trillions of dollars” of minerals, and of exciting investment opportunities, linking mineral wealth to cryptocurrency infrastructure.

And then, Pakistan’s role in apprehending the Abbey Gate bomber validated the positive impression of influential former Centcom chief Gen Michael Kurilla of Pakistan’s geographical position and value as an intelligence and military partner — not just in Afghanistan but also on the margins of the Middle East, especially in the vicinity of Iran and the Persian Gulf. Pakistan’s impressive military and diplomatic performance in the four-day war against India added another dimension to this image — that of competence, self-confidence and stability. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s meeting with Trump likely cemen­ted the overall favourable impression.

These developments took place at the confluence of Trump’s geopolitics and economic policies that could have favourable implications for Pakistan. In Trump’s view, geopolitics matters but is subordinate or adapted to the economic interests of America and the billionaires forming the ruling circles. We saw a glimpse of that at the Alaska summit. America’s global primacy still counts but it is more economic and technological, especially in AI.

But Trump knows America can retain its economic primacy only in a globalised economy and there is no global economy without China, Russia and even India. He is involved in a broader effort to “reconfigure global trade, finance and security”. And relations with Pakistan may be a small part of that effort, giving him leverage in relations with China and India, where he seeks greater market access. He wou­ld like China to agree to a managed global com­peti­­-tion with the US.

Leverage is central to Trump’s negotiating stra­tegy; all three relationships, with China, India and Pakis­tan, are in a way being used as cards against each other. Pakistan must watch these developments and remain alert to what Trump may demand in future that could force it to confront painful strategic choices.

In fact, the relationship has become a factor in many of Trump’s ongoing manoeuvres, with an uncertain future. And that’s not the only factor lending uncertainty to the future of Pak-US ties. Pakistan’s rare earth minerals lie at the centre of Wash­ington’s new attraction. But its viability as an economic partner remains untested, be­­cause of the security situation in Baloch­istan and KP, where the critical minerals are located. And Pakistan’s economy continues to rely on IMF bailouts and debt rollovers.

Most importantly, a relationship being driven by an individual, especially a leader like Trump, who seeks no institutional support, is precarious. In Trump’s world, any country is dispensable. And no policy is sacrosanct. Remember, all previous US engag­ements with Pakistan have been one-off.

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor, Georgetown University, US.

Published in Dawn, August 26th, 2025