A US attack on Iranian nuclear sites could lead to a knee-jerk reaction in global markets when they reopen, sending oil prices higher and triggering a rush to safety, investors say.
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, Reuters says, they expected the US involvement was likely to cause a selloff in equities and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when trading begins, but also said much uncertainty about the course of the conflict remained.
“I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital.
“We don’t have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though he has described this as ‘done’, we’re engaged. What comes next?” Spindel said.
A key concern for markets would centre around the potential impact of the developments in the Middle East on oil prices and thus on inflation. A rise in inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts.
