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ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has issued a forecast for a prolonged monsoon season in the India-Pakistan border region from late June to October.
According to the UN body, a strong pre-monsoon surge is expected in late June, with above-normal rainfall forecast along the Indo-Pakistan border.
The weather system is likely to continue into early July, followed by near-normal rainfall throughout the rest of the month.
Meanwhile, anomalous rainfall is predicted in the desert regions of both nations from July to September, according to a report released by the FAO on Friday.
The monsoon season is expected to be strong and prolonged with precipitation falling to near-normal levels in October.
November will be dry before the wet weather returns in December.
The report said early and abundant summer rains are likely to create favourable conditions for small-scale breeding of locusts in eastern Pakistan and Rajasthan, India.
However, the breeding activity is expected to disappear when monsoon rains retreat in November.
PMD forecast
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast normal to above normal rainfall from July to September 2025.
According to the PMD, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a neutral phase but is expected to transition to negative during the season.
Meanwhile, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is projected to remain in a neutral phase throughout the season.
Given these conditions, the department forecast normal to slightly above normal rainfall across the central to southern parts of the country.
The most rainfall is expected in the northeastern parts of Punjab and Kashmir. In contrast, the northern regions, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, are likely to experience normal to slightly below-normal rainfall during the forecast period.
There is also a likelihood of near-normal rainfall in southern Punjab, Sindh and southeastern Balochistan.
Northern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern and southwestern Balochistan may receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
Published in Dawn, June 22nd, 2025
Amin Ahmed is an Islamabad-based correspondent for Dawn with nearly two decades of experience in the field. He reports on socio-economic development, agriculture, and privatisation, as well as parliamentary committees.
