ISLAMABAD: Most of South Asia is forecast to experience above-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures during this year’s southwest monsoon season from June to September, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Wednesday.

The regional climate outlook was collaboratively developed by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of nine South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These services downscale the predictions for local decision-making, the WMO said in a press release.

The forecast involved an expert assessment of prevailing global climate conditions. “Currently neutral El Nino Southern Osci­llation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue during the southwest mon­soon season,” the WMO stated. El Niño, La Niña, and other climate phenomena like the Indian Ocean Dipole are considered major influencers.

Significantly low Northern Hemisphere snow cover, which has an “inverse relationship” with summer monsoon rainfall, was also a factor. Snow cover in January and March was the “4th and 6th lowest ever recorded during the past 59 years,” respectively.

Met Office warns against heatwave in southern Punjab, Sindh and flash floods in second half of monsoon

“From June through September, the southwest monsoon dominates life in much of South Asia, accounting for 75-90 per cent of annual rainfall in most parts of the region,” the WMO said. “It is the lifeblood of national economies, agricultural production and food security, but can also cause deadly flooding. This underscores why the international ‘Early Warnings for All’ initiative is a priority,” the WMO added.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Mete­orological Department said ENSO is projected to remain in a neutral phase throughout the season. Its forecast indicated a “general tendency for normal to slightly above-normal rainfall” in central to southern Pakistan, with the highest departures in northeastern Punjab. Northern regions, however, are likely to see normal to slightly below-normal rainfall.

The Met Office said above-normal rainfall from May to July “is expected to relax the soil moisture deficiency” in drought-hit areas. However, it warned of “the likelihood of heatwave development...especially over the plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh,” and anticipated flash or urban flooding in several regions due to heavy rainfall in the season’s second half.

Elevated temperatures in northern areas are anticipated to accelerate snowmelt, consequently increasing river water levels.

The WMO stated that advance monsoon information “underpins planning and decision-making” in agriculture, energy, public health, and risk management.

Published in Dawn, May 8th, 2025