ISLAMABAD: The use of water for non-agricultural purposes in Pakistan is expected to rise significantly due to climate change, according to the latest World Bank report. With a high-growth rate of 4.9 per cent per year and a 3°C temperature increase by 2047, water demand is projected to grow by 60pc.

Climate warming will account for up to 15pc of this increase, while in the next three decades, about 10pc of all irrigation water will need to be repurposed to meet non-agricultural demand.

Freeing up such quantities without compromising food security is a considerable challenge that will require substantial policy reforms to incentivise water conservation, increase water use efficiency in the agricultural sector, and shift away from water-intensive crops, according to the Country Partnership Framework for 2026-35 document.

The World Bank group’s engagement in Punjab will support access to markets and value chains to spur climate-resilient agricultural transformation, coupled with agriculture policy and water management reforms. Operations in Balochistan and Sindh will support flood resilience and strengthen infrastructure in the flood-affected areas.

Bank to support flood resilience, infrastructure in Balochistan, Sindh

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will increase focus on agriculture investments in value chains development. The World Bank and IFC will jointly support climate finance mobilisation efforts in line with the National Climate Finance Strategy and explore options to facilitate access to international climate finance and private capital, with a focus on adaptation.

The new framework will support a diversified agriculture sector that is resilient to water scarcity, droughts and changing rain patterns. The World Bank interventions will support the repurposing of inefficient, distortive and poorly targeted agricultural subsidies to spending on public goods like research and extension services, infrastructure and seed development, and promote climate-resilient solutions, climate smart farming practices and efficient use of water resources.

Small farmers’ alliances

Saving schemes, financial inclusion and cash transfers will help protect the poorest for the impact of droughts and flooding. One World Bank intervention will help develop high-potential agriculture value chains and processing, including in livestock and agriculture. Focus will increase on supporting small farmers’ alliances to supply value chains, as well as on financial inclusion of poor farmers and female farmers. The IFC will invest in climate smart agri-food companies and agri-logistics, including via public-private partnerships.

The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency will seek to leverage the World Bank group guarantee platform to support private investment connection with food and nutrition security.

Digitalisation will help enable agri-tech solutions and interventions under this indicator will contribute to the framework’s first outcome on improved nutrition and diversified diets, and on sixth outcome on private investments, and jobs including for women.

The document notes that decades of investment in agriculture has failed to transform the sector because major policy distortions prevailed like wheat procurement and pricing policies; fiscal, water pricing, and land tenure distortions; public resources, including through inefficient subsidies, are distributed inequitably, with less focus on wide-impact public goods such as agricultural research and extension.

Published in Dawn, February 16th, 2025