BETHESDA: Forget the polls, ditch the data and stop sending journalists to swing-state diners to interview undecided voters: historian Allan Lichtman already knows who is going to win the US presidential election. “Harris will win,” Lichtman confidently announced.

He was speaking at his home in the leafy Washington suburb of Bethesda shortly after unveiling his much-discussed, once-every-four-years White House prediction, based on what he calls the “13 keys” method.

It can be easy to dismiss Lichtman’s signature methodology as just another gimmick in the endless, drawn-out “horse race” style coverage of US elections — where journalists, pollsters and pundits are constantly trying to see who is up and who is down. But the American University history professor has answers for his critics — and a track record that’s hard to beat, having correctly called all but one election since 1984.

Lichtman pays no attention to opinion polls. Instead, his predictions are based on a series of true-or-false propositions applied to the current presidential administration. If six or more of these “keys” are false, the election will go to the out-of-power challenger — in this case, Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The one election where Lichtman’s calculations did not predict the president was the 2000 victory of George W. Bush. Lichtman can defend his record by pointing out that this was a legally complicated nail-biter in which Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush took victory courtesy of a Supreme Court decision.

Sage of Bethesda?

One of the keys, for example, posits that the president’s party won seats in the most recent midterm elections. The Democrats actually lost control of the House in the 2022 midterms, meaning this particular key is termed “false,” tipping the scales toward Trump.

A few more keys break Trump’s way: President Joe Biden stepped down, meaning Democrats lost the key which determines the “incumbency,” a vital advantage.

Biden’s vice president and replacement as nominee, Kamala Harris, is surging on optimism among party faithful. But Lichtman rules that she does not qualify for another of the keys, which is being a charismatic, “once-in-a-generation” candidate in the style of Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt.

More points to Trump, yes. But after that the keys start breaking in rapid succession for Harris. For example, the Biden administration’s massive environment and infrastructure legislation ticks the box for the key requiring a “major policy change” by the current White House.

Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2024