The one question repeatedly asked is: “Just when was Lahore founded?” It seems this has invited several versions. Normally the names of rulers are a benchmark. But then what existed before ‘rulers’ came?

In this piece we will not ignore the names of rulers, but we will run through events and processes to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. It might sound strange, but then the rise and fall of empires and rulers are primarily, repeat primarily, related to weather patterns that we are used to. Even the current Afghan wish to move eastwards has ancient historic roots. Ignore not the fact that most walled city Lahore inhabitants are Afghans.

The origin of Lahore primarily is related to the fall and emptying of Harappa. It is now an accepted fact that the monsoon rains and the resultant floods most likely made living there impossible. The move to higher grounds like Lahore, among others, was the result. Because of the River Ravi’s constant ‘meandering’ the Lahore port of Khizr, the patron saint of sailors and fishermen, came about. Lahore was truly then founded, and grain markets sprang up. But humans, in very small numbers, existed on the mound of Lahore before that.

The rains and flooding had a massive positive, as well as negative, aspect too. This piece is about that phenomenon. Research into the socio-political result of weather over the last 5,000 years is becoming an important aspect of history. Scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology at Pune have started to date historic events vis-à-vis the monsoons. They have factored in severe, medium, and light monsoons to crop outputs, and then, among other factors, tried to study invasions. The results are amazing.

While this research is important, earlier research on ‘The Chronology of Prehistoric India’ by Possehl and Rissman, provides detailed radio-carbon analysis of sub-continental archaeological sites. The end of human habitation of Harappa coincides by 200 years to that of Lahore’s founding. So, Lahore existed 200 years (approximately) before the last human left Harappa.

Just why did Harappa collapse? We must not forget that a few billion years ago the sub-continent broke away from Africa and joined Asia. The push northwards, because of the Earth’s rotation, continues and will do so forever. For this reason, the mountains to the north of Pakistan increase in height by about two inches (approximately) every year. This movement and the Earth’s rotation has a direct effect of river ‘meandering’, as well as flooding.

Another half of Africa is in the process of breaking away and heading towards the sub-continent. But that will take a few million years to happen. It is a frightening prospect. The Chicago research provides a date as to when humans managed to move into the sub-continent – it’s called radiometric dating – and that stands at Alpha 899 or 103,800, which equals to approximately 19,800 BC. So, starting from Mehrgarh humans settled and grew crops and herded animals approximately 14,500 years ago. One research puts it at 15,000 BC. They then moved up the rivers and first settled in Mohenjo Daro and then Harappa.

All these ancient habitations were destroyed by flooding and river movement, with occasional dry spells. But river movements – meandering – and monsoons determined how and when and where humans lived. The raising of crops and animals and the ability to store them is what invited invaders. Invasions took place when others to the West faced starvation. So, the equation was set.

Most of the 11 major invasions of the sub-continent over 22 centuries starting from 6th century BC ending with the Mughal invader Babar in the 16th century, all happened during a ‘good monsoon’ when crops were plentiful. Amazingly, the original lands of the invaders had suffered no rains, or even plagues. Local starvation seems to have forced the invaders towards the sub-continent.

The Indian study has found that Cyrus the Great, the founder of the Persian Achaemenid empire, and his successor Darius expanded their territory into the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent at a time marked by near-continuous good monsoon during the 6th century.

Scientists have known for years that the summer monsoon that delivers nearly 75 per cent of the annual rain on the sub-continent has played a key role in impacting societies and civilisations. Earlier research has indicated that the decline of the Indus Valley cities coincided with a weakening monsoon and more rains on the east, facilitating the rise of settlements along the Indo-Gangetic plains. In a way climate change has always been there.

“But there has been very little research on the monsoon and the invasions the sub-continent has experienced,” Dr. Naveen Gandhi, a specialist in ancient climate at the IITM who led the new study. Although weather scientists began to maintain rainfall records in the 19th century, signatures of the monsoon’s historical behaviour are imprinted in tree rings and mineral deposits found in caves.

Dr. Gandhi and his colleagues used tree rings in Kerala to reconstruct the monsoon’s behaviour from 1484 AD to 2003 AD and referred to mineral data from two caves in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, and caves in Iraq, Iran, and Uzbekistan to reconstruct a 10,000-year history of the monsoon.

“The greater the width of tree rings, the more abundant the rainfall.” The concentration of an oxygen isotope in the mineral deposits can also tell us about the historical performance of the monsoon. Their analysis combined with history textbook information has suggested that nine of 11 invasions on the continent occurred during phases of good monsoon.

The study shows that the arrival of the Huns in the 6th century AD, the Umayyad Caliphate in the 8th century AD, Mahmud of Ghazni in 1001 AD, Mohammad Ghori in 1175-85, and Bakhtiyar Khilji from 1197 to 1206 had all coincided with abundant rainfall. Many of these invasions also occurred during poor rainfall over central Asia.

If we study the movement of Afghans towards their eastern border we see a constant trickle towards Pakistan. The barren country forces them to move towards the east, where they tend to settle. Immigration is a deeply complex subject, and people only leave their land if starvation or a lack of opportunity faces the population.

In our times we see two major migration problems facing Lahore and Pakistan broadly. Lahore was inundated with Afghans during the Russian invasion. Today the old walled city has a 62 per cent majority population of Afghans. They worked as cheap labour, and our traders protected them.

Many years ago, while discussing this with the late Prof. Saleem Kaul of Peshawar University’s botany department, his opinion was that migration is always for human betterment. Today we see the Afghan migrants have opened their own shops and spread all over the city. One learns that they charge less for good and pay their taxes, unlike local traders. The same is the case in Karachi and Peshawar and other major cities.

But this has been the case over time, and by time one means centuries. So, we see human movement over time, let alone recent movement, is what we are because of humans moving to better places because of climate change. And yet we do not take this seriously.

Published in Dawn, April 28th, 2024