FOR a world already in flames, a fresh nuclear arms race would be an unmitigated catastrophe. Yet the growing gulf between Russia and the US — fuelled primarily by the Ukraine crisis — means that cooperation on nuclear arms reduction has practically stalled, with both states eyeing each other with suspicion. A significant recent development in this regard came in the shape of Russia’s State Duma voting to revoke Moscow’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. As the name of the 1996 document suggests, it seeks to prevent the testing of atomic weapons worldwide. All nuclear powers have largely respected the status quo, with no tests in decades, with the exception of North Korea, which tested devices in 2017. Russia has not tested nuclear weapons since the end of the Soviet Union. But with growing tension between Moscow and Washington, there is a danger that either state could alter its nuclear posture. Russia is believed to possess the world’s largest stockpile of nukes, followed by the US. However, Washington has little moral ground to criticise the Russians on the CTBT move as unlike Moscow, it never ratified the treaty. Earlier this year, Russia also withdrew from the bilateral New START treaty it had signed with America.

While there is no need for panic, both Russia and the US need to give top priority to maintaining the nuclear status quo, and preferably one day reducing their massive stockpiles. During the Cold War there were too many instances where a nuclear exchange was closely averted. The current global situation is just as — if not more — unstable, which means that efforts at arms control and preventing the resumption of nuclear testing should be redoubled by the international community. Pakistan also lives in a ‘nuclear neighbourhood’, and renewed arms tests may further vitiate the situation in South Asia. Therefore, instead of rolling back nuclear protocols, these must be strengthened by all states.

Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023