BEIRUT: Israel’s northern border with Lebanon is often tense, the legacy of past conflicts. But as Israel readies to invade Gaza, its army faces the threat of a two-front war.

Repeated fire in recent days has claimed lives on both sides of the UN-patrolled border between Lebanon and Israel, which remain technically at war.

If Israel does invade Gaza Strip, Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement has warned it may escalate its military involvement.

Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that “we have no interest in a war in the north, we don’t want to escalate the situation”.

Hezbollah’s deputy chief Naim Qassem told a pro-Palestinian rally on Friday that it was “fully prepared and, when the time comes for action, we will take it”.

Hezbollah, Lebanon’s only faction that did not disarm after the 1975-1990 civil war, last fought a major conflict with Israel in 2006.

That war left more than 1,200 dead in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, mostly soldiers, in a conflict that left deep scars and the border bristling with guns.

As tensions have again risen sharply, UNIFIL, the buffer force between Israel and Lebanon since 1978, has warned that the situation could get “out of control”.

The UN peacekeeping mission said on Sunday “our headquarters in Naqoura was hit with a rocket and we are working to verify from where. Our peacekeepers were not in shelters at the time.

“Fortunately, no one was hurt.”

Avoiding escalation

Over the years, cross-border strikes and incursions have been frequent but carefully calibrated, with both sides at pains to project strength but avoid escalation.

This has threatened to change after the Oct 7 Hamas raid.

Eleven people have been killed in Lebanon during sporadic missile strikes by Israel over the past week.

Most of the casualties have been Hezbollah and Hamas fighters, but three non-combatants, including a journalist, have also been killed.

Israel, which has massed tanks and troops along the border with Lebanon, closed a four-kilometre stretch to civilians on Sunday.

It took the measure after a civilian was killed, with Hezbollah claiming responsibility.

Both sides on the Lebanon-Israel border had so far adhered to “unwritten understandings about red lines neither should cross _ to avoid an escalation”, said Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the Crisis Group, in a paper published on Saturday.

Analysts have said Hezbollah is likely to scale up its involvement if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza.

The United States and other Western powers that support Israel have urged restraint and warned against a regional spillover of the conflict.

Many Lebanese — scarred by the civil war, Israeli occupation and the 2006 conflict — fear the consequences of renewed war.

Lebanon, in the throes of a deep economic crisis, can ill afford it.

In southern Lebanon, hundreds have left to seek refuge with relatives living further from the tense border, but some could not afford to flee.

Kamleh Abu Khalil, 72, said she had packed her bag but was not certain she would make it out because her family doesn’t have a car.

“We are exhausted,” she said. “We are fatigued.”

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2023