The current spike in the flow of the Sutlej has unleashed over eight million acre feet (MAF) of water into Punjab so far. To put this into perspective, this is more than the total capacity of the country’s largest reservoir at Mangla, which has a capacity of 7.3 MAF.

The deluge has damaged fields, sweeping away crops and forcing all life — human and livestock — out of the safety of their own homes and into the arms of an overburdened government.

A visit to any point where the Sutlej has broken its banks and flooded adjoining fields and villages across Kasur, Okara, Pakpattan, Vehari , Lodhran, Multan, Bahawalnagar and Bahawalpur shows the extent of damage done.

While a final assessment of the damage would only be possible once the water recedes, farmers’ estimates of what has happened to them so far are already harrowing.

The Sutlej invasion caught provincial agriculture on the wrong foot, coming at a time when the (hybrid) rice crop has matured to a point of harvesting, and the next sowing season (maize) is about to start.

But since these fields are now flooded, disrupting the crop cycle at this most crucial juncture, there are doubts over whether even wheat sowing will be possible or not.

Malik Naeem Hotiana, whose fields are currently under water even though his village is some 15km from the river, explains: “The agricultural economy in all districts… is now three short crops in succession. Matured rice crops were swept away when the fields flooded in July, but over the next three months (i.e. July-September), we used to sow and harvest maize. Hopes for both crops are now gone.”

He fears that yearly cycles could also be impacted to various degrees, given that a major part of the year’s income is down the drain. This will make life very difficult for farmers in the area.

While the direct damage to crops and famers is palpable, ripple effects are also being felt on the national agriculture market.

According to the calculations of Shafi Muhammad — a trader from Kasur — these floods have impacted an area of roughly three million acres, and the missing yield would definitely impact affect the supply and price of rice and maize.

Punjab had a bumper maize crop last year and may have some carryover, but the gap in the supply from the fresh crop would impact prices and maize would certainly be dearer this year.

With India banning rice exports, Pakistani exporters expected to bask in the deflected glory, but would now miss out on the opportunity.

While those with large land holdings may be able to weather the storm, it is the contract farmers who would be crushed under massive debts if they are unable to repay their landlords. The Sutlej has run riot through the most fertile track of the province, where contract money per acre now ranges between Rs200,000 and Rs250,000 per year.

Muhammad Yousuf, who manages a 600-acre farm in the area, tells Dawn: “The contract money has spiked in recent years. Paying off such a huge amount is only possible if the three-crop cycle runs efficiently and smoothly. With two crops already gone and chances of a third one grossly compromised, the contractors would be exposed to fiscal death. The landowners may give them some time to clear dues, but no one is going to forego it and it would be next to impossible for the contractors to recover this amount over the next few years. The aftermath of this flood would persist for years, if not decades, for contract farmers in the area.”

Shedding light on the plight of farm labour, Mr Yousuf says that the local economy would be in tatters this year. His farm alone pays around a billion rupees in labour costs, employing scores or daily-wagers. “With the entire cycle disrupted, this money or a major part of it would not be disbursed this year. This would be make-or-break for the survival of the labourers.”

Small farmers, like Muhammad Shahid, claim that the consequences of the flood are already catching up with them. “Middlemen have already stopped financing inputs for smaller farmers, fearing for the recovery of their dues. Since water has not neither receded nor slowed down — it is still spreading to new areas as breaches are being dug to control water upstream — the middleman is avoiding risking more money.”

Sardar Zahid Shuja, a farmer from Kanganpur — the turmeric capital of the province — sheds light on another dimension. With turmeric being a capital-intensive proposition, their crops were insured, but the insurer now says that unless government declares the area calamity-hit, they cannot make a visit to the area or pay out insurance money. “We are pleading with the government to declare villages, in place of districts, calamity-hit and help farmers recover some money,” he says.

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2023