PARIS: Ukraine’s army has made modest progress in the south and Russian forces have advanced in the Donbas, but the war’s frontline is frozen and a month after the launch of Kyiv’s much-heralded counteroffensive neither side seems able to force a decisive breakthrough.

Ukrainian forces over the past week recaptured nine square kilometres in the east and 28 square kms in the south, Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Malyar said on Monday.

It’s a far cry from Kyiv’s lightning successes seizing 9,000 square kms in just nine days east of Kharkiv at the start of last September, followed by 5,000 more in November in the Kherson region.

“Last week was difficult on the frontline,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“But we are making progress. We are moving forward, step by step!” Moscow has spent months consolidating its defensive lines, some of which now run to a depth of 30 kms.

“There’s a considerable number of Russians in Ukraine. There are considerable defensive obstacles,” Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of Nato’s Military Committee told journalists in Brussels on Monday.

“The counteroffensive, it is difficult. People should never think that this is an easy walkover.” Ukrainian military chiefs were right to be “cautious” probing for weaknesses in the Russian lines, as they risk losing a lot of forces in full-on assaults, Bauer said.

To further complicate the task for Kyiv, the Russians have recently attacked several places in the Donbas, which Moscow claimed to have annexed last year. Conquering the region remains Moscow’s declared main aim of the war.

According to Kyiv, Russian forces are also on the offensive, and in recent days launched new assaults towards Svatove, in the eastern Lugansk region, as well as near Avdiivka, Mariinka and Lyman in Donetsk.

French military historian Michel Goya said it would be unwise to draw hasty conclusions, with the frontlines entrenched and neither side powerful enough to crush the other.

Not enough artillery

“The Russians are in a defensive position in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk zone, which does not stop them from carrying out peripheral operations ... to try to pin down the Ukrainian forces,” Goya said.

Published in Dawn, July 4th, 2023