THE post-World War II global order has been dominated by the US, and to a lesser extent its European allies. It is these forces that have defined and policed the international ‘rules-based order’, particularly after the end of the Cold War. Yet this arrangement is clearly coming apart, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown. Replacing Pax Americana is a more multilateral arrangement, with China, the world’s second largest economy, playing a particularly visible role. The shock Saudi-Iranian détente, which caught most of the international community by surprise, is one example of Beijing’s increasing global diplomatic footprint. While top officials from Iran and Saudi Arabia met in the Chinese capital to talk peace last month, the process of rapprochement between the cross-Gulf rivals was cemented when Tehran and Riyadh’s foreign ministers convened in Beijing on Thursday to bring “security and stability” to the region.

Beyond the Saudi-Iranian thaw, a more active foreign policy is being pursued by Xi Jinping’s China. Beijing is reportedly involved in conflict resolution in East Africa, while it had also offered a peace plan to end the Ukraine crisis, which the Western bloc turned down. Beijing, moreover, apparently played a key role in the success of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1, before the agreement was torpedoed by the Trump administration. Are we, thus, beginning to see the dawn of Pax Sinica? Though it may be too early to say, China is certainly aiming to play a greater role globally, as a counterweight to the US-led West. Beijing’s enhanced diplomacy and economic prowess ensures that China is heard in world capitals. For example, many economic experts have begun to speak of the petrodollar’s ‘dusk’ and the petroyuan’s ‘dawn’. There are, of course, key differences between the Chinese and Western approaches to diplomacy. China is obviously not interested in promoting democracy, and wants to ensure conditions are feasible for its globe-spanning trade and commerce corridors. The West, on the other hand, makes the right noises by raising issues of democracy and human rights. But in practice, the US and its acolytes have unleashed havoc through regime change and global wars, along with supporting ‘friendly’ autocrats. At least for the larger Eurasian region, the Chinese desire for better connectivity and smooth trade could pave the way for the resolution of stubborn regional disputes.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2023