Geo-political and international financial developments, and our own credit downgrading, will limit access to new foreign debt and prevent the resumption of our cripplingly import-dependent economic growth. The recovery we can now sustain will rely on mobilising our own long-neglected resources. Agriculture, labour skills, SMEs as the core of domestic supply chains, and technical education — all faded in significance as internationally uncompetitive but domestically protected, large businesses entrenched influence within political power. Governmental oversight and any responsible measure of central planning came to be shunned, with absurd outcomes — e.g. textiles expanded capacity, while cotton production fell — from the 13m bales we produced and that the industry needs to 7m. The balance represents imports this year, possibly $2.5bn.

We will need to revive development banks, a proven cornerstone for the development of agriculture and SME sectors in emerging markets. Critically, we will need to build on CPEC and attract Chinese investment, albeit market seeking, but from our perspective, to acquire technology we direly need in agriculture (micro-irrigation devices; agri-machinery) and in the production of intermediate goods (parts, components, chemicals) that we import at present.

Globalisation provided significant technology transfer to domestic businesses across Asia — but bypassed us. Working with Chinese companies within Pakistan, we can set the ball rolling to deepen our shallow, largely assembly-type appliances and auto manufacturing, improve agri productivity and bolster agri goods exports.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 2nd, 2023