Climate change induced river floods and heavy monsoon rains played havoc with vast areas in the country, displacing millions of people and damaging standing crops this summer.

Almost all the displaced farmers in Punjab have returned to their homes as the government and non-governmental organisations helped rebuild their houses. However, they couldn’t properly prepare their lands for plantation afresh because of the high soil moisture level as flood waters remained stagnant there for months, making tilling nearly impossible.

Growers had to use the seed-casting method for sowing wheat, canola and other crops. Of these, canola, particularly its Raya variety, has no major issue with seed casting, but wheat has.

“We had no option but to resort to the centuries-old casting method. We have placed our hope in mother nature to harvest reasonable yields of Rabi crops from our over-moist lands,” says Aurangzeb Khan from Rajanpur, one of worst flood-hit districts in Punjab.

Progressive growers, taking a cue from changing weather patterns, are breaking their decades-old wheat-cotton pattern

The silver lining is that climate change effects are making farmers think of alternative solutions. They are turning towards high-value and shorter-duration crops, including vegetables, to meet the challenge of changing weather patterns with little help from the government.

“We have been sowing wheat in Rabi and cotton in Kharif seasons for decades, if not centuries. Now, we are looking for alternative crops like canola, which is gaining popularity among the local community as, unlike wheat, it needs not more than one watering with negligible care and minimum fertiliser,” says Khan.

Wheat has conceded its area as canola acreage in the district has more than doubled this year because it had also been sown earlier on lands lying barren due to the unavailability of water. “But, floods have provided the required moisture and made it possible to cultivate the oilseed crop there too,” confirms Rajanpur Agri­culture (extension) Deputy Director Muhammad Hanif.

The minimum support price of grain is Rs3,000 per maund, while peas can sell at Rs8,000

The change in crop pattern, being learnt the hard way, is not visible just in flood-affected lands. Rather progressive growers in adjacent areas are also taking a cue from the changing weather patterns and are preparing themselves for climate-resilient farming as well as breaking the old two-crop, wheat-cotton, pattern.

Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, leader of the farmers’ group, says he had planted peas on 150 acres of land this Rabi season instead of wheat in the Khanewal district. The vegetable crop is not only of a shorter duration, as it matures at least 30 to 40 days earlier than wheat, but it also ensures a better return while both crops have an almost equal yield of 35 maunds per acre.

The minimum support price of grain is Rs3,000 per maund, while Mr Khokhar hopes to sell his peas at Rs8,000 per maund. By mid-March, his land will be free for early sowing of cotton and reap a better harvest of the white lint before the weather becomes harsher and uncertain during summers.

It is a good bet for the farming community but not for the country. A declining wheat acreage means a drop in the output of the major staple food. Pakistan is already importing three million tonnes of grain this year, and a further cut in local wheat production means a swell in the import needs at the cost of precious foreign exchange.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 2nd, 2023